New Dana Threat Looms Over The Mediterranean

The latest information from Spain’s State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has confirmed nan fears of Valencians, pinch galore events scheduled for nan Day of nan Valencian Community now astatine consequence of cancellation owed to nan return of dense rain.

Just a week aft nan torrential downpours of 29 September, which revived memories of nan past DANA (Isolated Depression astatine High Levels), forecasters are informing that nan shape could repetition itself connected Thursday October 9, correct successful nan mediate of location celebrations.

According to Aemet, “from Thursday 9 onwards, dense rainfall could hap complete nan Costa Blanca, though location is still important uncertainty.” The business is said to beryllium nan consequence of a operation of acold aerial successful nan precocious ambiance and moist aboveground winds.

Meteorological uncertainty: DANA aliases trough?

Some experts judge that existent world models are opening to propose nan imaginable statement of a caller DANA aliases trough. For now, Aemet’s forecast points to cloudy skies crossed each 3 Valencian provinces by midweek, pinch immoderate clear spells expected later successful nan time successful nan acold northbound and south.

Weather conditions are expected to beryllium highly variable. Monday and Tuesday will beryllium dominated by precocious unit and rising temperatures. However, from Wednesday onwards, an isolated upper-level debased could shape complete nan Iberian Peninsula, bringing unsettled upwind to the Mediterranean coast.

The 2 main world models stay divided: nan American GFS exemplary predicts a DANA, while nan European ECMWF exemplary suggests a little terrible trough complete nan Mediterranean. Should nan GFS script materialise, nan consequence of torrential rainfall and organised thunderstorms would beryllium importantly higher.

Potential for renewed dense rainfall

While overmuch of Spain will stay dry, nan Mediterranean region is erstwhile again expected to carnivore nan brunt of nan rain. The European exemplary forecasts rainfall good beneath mean successful Galicia and nan Cantabrian seashore but higher-than-normal precipitation successful eastbound and southeastern Spain, peculiarly successful nan Valencian Community.

Rain is expected to statesman connected Monday October 6 besides successful parts of nan southeast, Catalonia’s cardinal coast, nan Balearic Islands and nan Strait of Gibraltar. Tuesday will beryllium a calmer modulation time earlier instability increases from Wednesday, pinch showers processing inland and on nan Cantabrian coast. By Thursday, rainfall could intensify crossed nan full Mediterranean arc, perchance accumulating 10 to 20 litres per quadrate metre.

On Friday, showers could persist on nan southeast and eastbound coasts, pinch immoderate becoming locally strong. Over 2 to 3 days, rainfall totals of 50 litres per quadrate metre could erstwhile again beryllium recorded successful confederate Valencia and coastal Murcia. Conditions should stabilise by nan weekend, isolated from successful nan Balearic Islands, wherever showers whitethorn proceed earlier easing off.

End of nan “veranillo”

What was expected to beryllium a lukewarm “veranillo” (late summertime spell) will alternatively cool down arsenic rainfall arrives successful nan east. Early-week highs will scope 30–32°C successful nan southwest earlier temperatures driblet nationwide, settling betwixt 24–26°C on nan Mediterranean and beneath 20°C successful nan north. Nights will stay mild, pinch astir inland cities seeing lows betwixt 9 and 12°C acknowledgment to lingering unreality screen and wind.