Why Trump's Claim Of Falling Food Stamp Use Might Not Mean The Economy Is Improving

President Donald Trump has precocious turned to a caller economical parameter successful his push to person Americans that his policies are boosting nan economy: nan number of group receiving national nutrient benefits.

“In 9 months, we’ve lifted complete 600,000 Americans disconnected nutrient stamps,” he said Tuesday astatine nan U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum successful Washington.

A fewer days earlier, Trump cited nan fig astatine nan McDonald’s Impact Summit, saying, “It’s really because we really person a beardown economy.” And past month, he besides highlighted nan number astatine a gathering of business executives successful South Korea.

But a deeper dive into nan information paints a much analyzable picture. Even though less group are receiving national nutrient assistance, lower-wage workers proceed to look a slowing occupation market and persistent inflation cutting into their costs growth, researchers and economists said. At nan aforesaid time, nutrient banks opportunity they person been seeing increasing demand, suggesting a continued struggle among group to beryllium capable to put nutrient connected nan table.

Data connected nan number of group receiving nutrient benefits done nan Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, often referred to arsenic nutrient stamps, is disposable only done June, and figures from that period are still taxable to revisions, according to nan U.S. Agriculture Department. But comparing nan number of group receiving nutrient assistance successful January — erstwhile Trump came into agency — to June shows a diminution of 800,000 enrollees, aliases astir 2%, which nan White House attributed to his policies.

“President Trump’s proven economical look of taxation cuts, deregulation, and unleashing American power has cooled inflation, raised existent wages, and promoted growth,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said successful a statement. “As a result, much than 800,000 Americans person been lifted disconnected of SNAP acknowledgment to this President’s successful policies.”

Seasonal variations successful SNAP enrollment

Over nan agelong term, nan number of group receiving SNAP benefits tends to way nan level of poorness successful nan state since less group are eligible for nan benefits arsenic their incomes rise, researchers and economists said.

But, they warned, comparing monthly changes successful nan number of SNAP recipients complete a comparatively short play of clip tin beryllium misleading. For instance, location was a akin driblet successful SNAP recipients during nan first six months of 2023 — a clip erstwhile Trump was attacking then-President Joe Biden’s handling of nan economy.

There are often monthly fluctuations successful really galore group person SNAP benefits based connected a number of factors extracurricular of nan trajectory of nan economy, specified arsenic seasonal hiring, changes to eligibility and earthy disasters. Hurricane Helene, for instance, caused a spike successful SNAP enrollment successful North Carolina and Georgia past fall, and SNAP enrollment successful those states remained supra their pre-Helene levels into early this year.

“The number of group participating has tracked nan number of group successful poverty, and that does, successful general, way economical conditions,” said Dottie Rosenbaum, head of national SNAP argumentation astatine nan Center connected Budget and Policy Priorities. “But location are different factors, for illustration what stock of eligible group participate, really good states do astatine enrolling people, changes successful eligibility rules, and whether location was a caller earthy disaster.”

When comparing nan mean number of SNAP recipients complete nan first six months of this twelvemonth to nan aforesaid play past year, location has been a flimsy increase. On a monthly year-over-year basis, SNAP enrollment successful May was comparatively unchanged from a twelvemonth earlier and down by astir 300,000 successful June to astir 41.6 million, according to USDA figures.

Slowing occupation market

U.S. economical maturation did prime up during nan spring, compared to nan commencement of nan year, driven by an uptick successful user spending and a unreserved of companies importing equipment up of Trump’s caller tariffs. But nan occupation marketplace has been slowing successful caller months and unemployment has been ticking higher.

Employers added jobs astatine a comparatively patient clip successful September, but location were occupation losses successful industries relied connected by lower-wage workers, specified arsenic manufacturing, proscription and warehousing, according to information released Thursday. The unemployment complaint successful September ticked up to 4.4%, nan highest level successful astir 4 years.

Lower-wage workers person besides seen a slowdown successful their costs growth; salary for nan bottommost 4th of earners accrued 3.7% successful July, compared to an summation of 4.7% for nan highest earners, according to data from nan Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

“The system is spinning connected mud trying to get traction,” said Ismael Cid-Martinez, an economist pinch nan Economic Policy Institute, whose investigation focuses connected income inequality. “I would struggle to find immoderate signs to constitute location astir to signify that this is simply a labour marketplace that’s stronger than nan 1 that we saw complete nan past 5 years.”

Recent polls person shown voters progressively concerned astir nan system and Trump’s handling of it. In an NBC News canvass earlier this month, 63% of respondents said Trump had fallen short of expectations regarding nan economy. In a Fox News poll released this week, 76% of voters said they viewed nan system negatively — worse than nan 70% who said nan aforesaid of Biden astatine nan extremity of his term.

Food banks said they person seen fewer signs of nutrient insecurity waning. Feeding America, nan country’s largest hunger organization, said that successful nan first six months of nan year, arsenic galore arsenic 80% of nan nutrient banks it serves reported seeing an summation successful demand.

Even if much Americans do spot their incomes summation and are nary longer eligible for SNAP benefits, that doesn’t needfully mean they are nary longer struggling to put nutrient connected nan table, said Linda Nageotte, president and main operating serviceman for Feeding America. About 37% of group whom Feeding America serves gain excessively overmuch to suffice for SNAP benefits, but still request to trust connected a section nutrient pantry, she said.

A family of 4 needs to gain little than $3,483 a period to qualify for assistance. If a recipient's income goes complete nan limit, moreover by conscionable a mini magnitude — because their hours accrued somewhat aliases they sewage a mini raise — they tin suffer hundreds of dollars successful benefits.

“You whitethorn beryllium making $10 much than what is eligible, truthful you’re really not capable to screen each your basal necessities, but you besides aren’t capable to get nan thief that you request from our nation’s starring support work for folks facing nutrient insecurity,” Nageotte said. “We telephone that nan benefits cliff, and it is simply a important situation that many, galore group experiencing nutrient insecurity are facing.”

Stricter SNAP eligibility

In nan coming months, less group are projected to beryllium eligible for SNAP benefits, which could thrust down nan number of enrollees by nan millions — moreover if they don’t spot an summation successful their income.

Starting this month, nan Trump management began putting sweeping caller activity requirements successful place, which were enacted nether nan taxation measure passed complete nan summertime that Republicans dubbed nan One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Under that legislation, each adults nether nan property of 65 must now work, unpaid aliases spell to schoolhouse a minimum of 20 hours a week successful bid to suffice for benefits for much than 3 months unless they person a kid nether nan property of 14 aliases suffice for a disablement exemption.

Under nan provisions, 2.4 cardinal group could suffer SNAP benefits successful an mean period complete nan adjacent decade, according to estimates from nan Congressional Budget Office.

“Just beryllium candid, it feels for illustration a very scary infinitesimal of wherever we are and what’s coming versus a communicative of an system doing good,” said Sara Bleich, a professor of nationalist wellness argumentation astatine Harvard University. “There’s fundamentally a tidal activity of nonaccomplishment that’s coming because group are going to beryllium kicked disconnected SNAP by nan millions and nan charitable nutrient web and nan states cannot dress up for nan shortfall. So, group are conscionable going to beryllium astatine a loss, and they are not going to person a measurement to make ends meet.”