Why Arsenal Are Still The Favourites To Win The Premier League

Last play was nightmarish for Arsenal. They lost astatine location to Bournemouth connected Saturday pinch a flat, disjointed performance, and matters deteriorated further nan pursuing time erstwhile Manchester City hit Chelsea convincingly astatine Stamford Bridge. Arsenal’s lead astatine nan Premier League acme has narrowed from 9 points to six, and City still person a crippled successful hand.

The 2 sides meet astatine nan Etihad connected Sunday for a lucifer that could specify nan title race. The communicative beautiful overmuch writes itself: City triumph that game, past triumph their crippled successful hand, and nan title is surely theirs fixed really beardown they are astatine nan extremity of nan season. That script is being talked astir arsenic an inevitability successful immoderate quarters, arsenic though Arsenal person already let things slip.

That presumption does not beryllium without adjacent reason. Arsenal person only won 1 of their past 5 matches, getting eliminated from some home cups successful nan process. The mode of those defeats, peculiarly against Manchester City successful nan League Cup final and Bournemouth successful nan league, raises morganatic concerns complete whether Mikel Arteta’s broadside tin grip nan pressure.

But nan title title is not over. Far from it, successful fact. There are still respective compelling reasons for Arsenal supporters to stay optimistic.

1) Winning 7 games successful a statement is tough

“If Manchester City triumph each their remaining games, they triumph nan league.” How galore times has that building been uttered successful nan past week? What is little often acknowledged is really difficult a task it is, moreover for a Pep Guardiola side. The presumption that City will simply triumph each their games is based connected what they person done successful nan past, but it overlooks caller evidence.

Across nan past 2 seasons, City’s longest winning tally successful nan convention stands astatine six matches, chalked up betwixt November and December past year. Outside that, their longest winning streak stands astatine four, which they person only achieved twice.

This is not rather nan relentless, metronomic City of erstwhile campaigns. They stay formidable, tin of nan heights possibly moreover Arsenal are not. But they are not infallible. Blindly assuming they’re going to person a cleanable run-in is premature.

2) Arsenal person a beardown grounds successful large games

Arsenal request to position nan crippled astatine nan Etihad arsenic an opportunity alternatively than a threat. A triumph would each but seal nan title.

Arsenal’s caller convention meetings against City person been encouraging. They are unbeaten successful their past 5 against them successful nan Premier League (won two, drawn three), having mislaid 12 successful a statement earlier that run. While their League Cup last conclusion was alarming, it wasn’t arsenic if they were wholly blown away. City played well, but Arsenal were a agelong measurement disconnected their best.

What’s more, Arsenal’s broader grounds successful high-profile fixtures nether Arteta is impressive. Across nan past 3 and a half seasons, if you look astatine fixtures betwixt sides presently successful nan apical six, Arsenal person mislaid less matches than immoderate of their rivals (eight of 39) and accumulated much points than anyone else. If location is simply a pattern, it’s that Arsenal person tended to stumble successful fixtures they are expected to win, alternatively than against nonstop rivals.

3) The run-in favours Arsenal

A location crippled against Bournemouth looked favourable connected paper, truthful predicting early fixtures should ever beryllium treated pinch caution. That’s what happens successful sport. And, arsenic we’ve conscionable said, Arsenal person had a inclination to driblet silly points successful nan past.

That said, nan run-in still favours Arsenal. Using nan Opta Power Rankings to measure force strength, their remaining fixtures transportation an mean force standing of 90.4, compared to 92.0 for City.

Relative to nan remainder of nan league, Arsenal person nan fourth-easiest run-in. Avoiding conclusion astatine nan Etihad could beryllium capable to support control, peculiarly pinch 3 of their remaining matches astatine home.

4) Their underlying numbers are strong

A batch has been made of Arsenal’s deficiency of productivity from unfastened play, and those criticisms are valid. Against Bournemouth, they generated conscionable 0.19 expected goals from unfastened play, their lowest full successful a location convention lucifer since signaling 0.17 against Crystal Palace successful October 2025.

However, their wide expected goals full against Bournemouth was 2.32, pinch 2.13 of that coming from set-pieces. Their punishment (0.79) inflates that fig to immoderate extent, but nan expertise to consistently create high-quality chances from dead-ball situations remains a existent strength. The equilibrium betwixt their chance creation successful unfastened play and set-plays is stark and acold from ideal, but chances from set-pieces do still count.

More broadly, Arsenal’s underlying numbers stay really strong. They still person nan champion defence successful nan country. Stripping nan numbers down to 2026 alone, they are nan only Premier League broadside conceding little than 1 expected extremity per crippled (0.76). Even during this caller dip, they person not been conceding galore high-quality chances. That Bournemouth’s 1.19 xG was nan sixth-most Arsenal person conceded successful a crippled each play speaks to that.

At nan different end, they proceed to make capable opportunities to triumph matches much often than not. They person “won” nan expected goals conflict successful 11 of their 13 convention games this year. Those numbers should carry them complete nan line.

5) The Opta supercomputer still backs them

Fair enough, “because our exemplary says so” is not nan astir reassuring consequence to Arsenal fans. But looking astatine nan Opta supercomputer tin supply immoderate useful, logical context. According to nan model’s 10,000 simulations, Arsenal still triumph nan title successful 87% of them. They besides stay favourites pinch nan bookmakers.

Strip distant nan emotion of past play and location is still a acold greater chance than not that Arsenal will get complete nan line. Momentum is pinch Manchester City and everyone is waiting and expecting nan inevitable Arsenal collapse. Arteta’s broadside request to respond quickly. But nan fundamentals of their title situation stay strong.

This is an article by Opta Analyst