Two Down, One To Go - Who Will Join Burnley & Wolves?

BySam Drury

BBC Sport journalist

Two down, 1 to go.

Burnley's nonaccomplishment to Manchester City meant they joined Wolves successful having their relegation from nan Premier League confirmed.

For nan past mates of weeks, it has looked for illustration being 4 teams - Leeds, Nottingham Forest, West Ham and Tottenham - scrapping it retired to debar nan remaining spot successful nan driblet zone.

But, pursuing Sean Longstaff's melodramatic precocious equaliser astatine Bournemouth, Leeds person taken 7 points from 3 games to scope nan magical 40-point mark, and galore will beryllium starting to exclude them from immoderate relegation conversations.

"I americium knowledgeable agelong capable successful this world, we will observe erstwhile it's mathematically done. It's excessively early," Leeds leader Daniel Farke told BBC Match of nan Day.

"We are connected 40 points, 7 games unbeaten successful each competitions, truthful I americium confident. Why should we suffer nan past 4 games?"

Victory complete Championship-bound Burnley astatine Elland Road mightiness beryllium capable to make Leeds mathematically safe.

Until then, location is still activity to do earlier Farke will fto himself observe and - surely for nan different 3 sides successful nan operation - it could spell down to nan wire...

Big celebrations aft a 97th-minute equaliser are usually to beryllium expected but, for nan Leeds players astatine nan Vitality Stadium, it was astir much than conscionable nan point.

That tie takes them 9 points clear of Tottenham successful 18th and, pinch truthful fewer games remaining, that spread will almost surely beryllium capable to support them successful nan apical flight.

According nan Opta Supercomputer, nan chances of Farke's broadside being relegated from this position are a specified 0.21%.

Still mathematically possible, arsenic nan Leeds head said, but barring nan astir singular move of events nan Whites person done enough.

It is bully news, too, for Forest. Following their triumph complete Burnley astatine nan weekend, Opta gives them conscionable a 4.27% chance of being relegated.

As acold arsenic nan supercomputer is concerned then, it is betwixt West Ham and Tottenham for that unwanted 18th place.

The Hammers are fixed a 38.58% of ending nan play successful nan bottommost three, while it is seen arsenic much apt than not that Spurs will spell down for nan first clip since 1977.

Roberto de Zerbi's broadside are nan 56.93% favourites to beryllium relegated from here.

Tottenham leader De Zerbi was bullish astir his side's chances of staying up aft Saturday's tie pinch Brighton, claiming they are "able to triumph 5 games successful a row" to extremity nan season.

But for each De Zerbi's religion successful his players' capabilities, nan grounds of this play does not propose a squad tin of specified a feat.

Spurs person not won immoderate of their past 15 convention games, meaning they are without a top-flight triumph successful 2026 and person managed only 2 since 26 October.

They must hit bottommost broadside Wolves connected Saturday to debar equalling nan club's worst winless convention tally - group immoderate 91 years ago, betwixt 1934 and 1935.

By contrast, nan shape of Spurs' relegation rivals has been picking up.

Nottingham Forest person 2 wins successful their past 3 games and are unbeaten successful five, and West Ham person won 2 of their past five.

Zoom retired a small further and nan Hammers person taken 19 points from their past 12 games, Forest person 18 from their past 13 and for Leeds it is 19 from 15.

Since beating Crystal Palace connected 28 December, Spurs person taken six points from 15 matches.

Every twelvemonth erstwhile nan fixtures are announced you perceive nan acquainted refrain that "it doesn't matter, you play everyone twice".

But location is nary uncertainty that erstwhile you look a definite squad tin make a large quality crossed a 10-month campaign.

With 5 games remaining Spurs will decidedly deliberation their run-in, astatine slightest connected paper, gives them each chance of staying up.

Next up is simply a travel to Wolves, whose relegation to nan Championship was confirmed connected Monday.

A location lucifer against Leeds connected 11 May is different Tottenham will position arsenic an opportunity, particularly if Farke's broadside person ensured their information by then.

Even a tricky-looking lucifer astatine Champions League-chasing Aston Villa connected 3 May comes astatine a bully clip for Spurs, arsenic it falls betwixt nan 2 legs of nan Europa League semi-final for Unai Emery's men.

A sojourn to rivals Chelsea earlier hosting Everton connected nan last time is not a straightforward measurement to finish, fixed some teams look apt to beryllium fighting for European places.

But, fixed really tight things are, that is thing each nan relegation candidates will person to woody with.

West Ham big Everton connected Saturday earlier an distant crippled astatine Brentford - and it only gets tougher pinch title-chasing Arsenal nan visitors to London Stadium connected 10 May.

Even pinch Newcastle enduring a disappointing season, an distant crippled astatine St James' Park connected nan penultimate play is acold from elemental and location could beryllium plentifulness riding connected nan location lucifer against Leeds connected nan past day.

Forest arguably look nan toughest past 5 pinch distant games astatine Chelsea and Manchester United successful May - nan erstwhile coming conscionable 3 days earlier nan 2nd limb of nan Reds' Europa League semi-final against Villa.

Home games against Newcastle and Bournemouth, connected nan past day, could beryllium important but getting a consequence astatine Sunderland connected Friday would thief alleviate a batch of accent for Vitor Pereira's broadside earlier nan remainder of nan run-in.

It is 49 years since Spurs recovered themselves successful nan relegation area aft 33 convention games and, successful that 1976-77 season, they were incapable to prevention themselves.

Given only Sheffield Wednesday, already relegated from nan Championship, person a worse location grounds than Spurs' 2 wins successful England's apical 4 tiers this term, important improvements will beryllium required.

The numbers don't get immoderate much encouraging for De Zerbi's broadside pinch only Derby (18) successful 2007-08 and Sunderland (17) successful 2002-03 having longer winless runs to commencement a almanac twelvemonth than Spurs' existent streak of 15 - and some were relegated successful those years.

Forest tin return immoderate comfortableness from nan truth 36 points has been capable to past successful each Premier League play since 2015-16.

Even much encouragingly for nan Whites, only six teams person been relegated pinch 39 points aliases much successful a 38-game play and not successful nan past 14 seasons - since Birmingham and Blackpool some went down connected 39 points.

This twelvemonth mightiness beryllium 1 successful which nan accepted declare of 40 points being required for information proves true, but West Ham cognize that sometimes moreover that is not enough.

The Hammers clasp nan unwanted grounds of nan astir points achieved by a relegated broadside - nan 42 they mustered successful 2002-03 was not capable to spare them from nan drop.

No wonderment Farke and Leeds are taken thing for granted conscionable yet.