Trump's Texas-sized Redistricting Dreams: From The Politics Desk

Welcome to nan online type of From nan Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you nan NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and study from nan White House, Capitol Hill and nan run trail.

In today’s version we dive into President Donald Trump’s ambitions successful Texas, wherever Republicans are group to redraw their legislature maps. Plus, Steve Kornacki explores nan dilemma facing Zohran Mamdani’s opponents successful nan New York City mayoral race.

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— Adam Wollner

Trump’s Texas-sized redistricting dreams

President Donald Trump is mounting a lofty extremity for Texas Republicans arsenic they hole to tackle redrawing their legislature maps: He wants nan statement to prime up 5 House seats arsenic a consequence of nan process.

“A very elemental redrawing, we prime up 5 seats,” Trump told reporters.

That could beryllium to beryllium a gangly order, arsenic Republicans already power 25 of Texas’ 38 legislature districts. The circumstantial areas nan GOP could target erstwhile they return up redistricting successful adjacent week’s typical legislative convention stay unclear. But 2 of them could beryllium nan Democratic-held South Texas districts that Trump won successful 2024.

According to an analysis by NBC News’ Decision Desk, Trump carried Rep. Henry Cuellar’s territory by 7 points and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s territory by 4 points past year. Cuellar won his spot by little than 6 points, while Gonzalez won by little than 3 points.

But immoderate effort to spot much Republican voters successful Democratic districts risks making GOP-controlled districts much competitive. That’s why immoderate House Republicans successful Texas person been skeptical of nan effort.

Still, Trump pushed Gov. Greg Abbott to forge up pinch an unscheduled, mid-decade redistricting push. It underscores nan situation Republicans look successful protecting, overmuch little expanding, their razor-thin House mostly adjacent year. As Steve Kornacki precocious noted, nan president’s statement has mislaid House seats successful 13 of nan past 15 midterm elections — and successful galore of those cases, those losses were steep.

Trump downplayed nan imaginable consequence of redrawing Texas’ representation during a telephone pinch House Republicans successful nan authorities today, Melanie Zanona reported, assuring members they’d beryllium capable win successful creating respective caller GOP seats, according to nan root connected nan call. (Punchbowl News was nan first to study nan call.)

Sen. John Cornyn, who is facing a GOP superior situation from authorities Attorney General Ken Paxton, publically backed nan move. In a post connected X, he based on that “Hispanic voters successful Texas person quickly shifted successful favour of nan GOP,” meaning that nan redistricting push “will mean important gains for Texas Republicans.”

Democrats person been eager to prosecute connected nan issue. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a imaginable 2028 statesmanlike contender, has moreover floated redrawing his state’s maps to antagonistic nan GOP’s efforts successful Texas. But that’s besides easier said than done: In California, an independent committee controls nan redistricting process.

“It’s painfully clear why Republicans are doing this,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene, nan chair of nan Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. They cognize they are going to suffer nan mostly adjacent year.”

Mamdani’s opponents are locked successful a staring title successful NYC

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

Andrew Cuomo’s decision to enactment successful nan race for New York City politician intends location are 3 awesome wide predetermination alternatives to Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani. They each admit that nan only (arguably) plausible measurement of knocking disconnected Mamdani is by consolidating guidance to him down a azygous opponent.

But erstwhile they look astatine each other, they each deliberation nan aforesaid thing: Why would I ever driblet retired for this guy?

Start pinch Cuomo. All of the available polling since nan June superior has him moving up of some existent Mayor Eric Adams and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa successful a multicandidate title against Mamdani. This is why Cuomo is calling for Adams and Sliwa to exit nan title if they haven’t overtaken him by September.

But everything other astir Cuomo’s position screams “weakness.” His 12-point Democratic superior nonaccomplishment to Mamdani amounted to a governmental humiliation, fixed that he came to nan title arsenic nan overwhelming favorite. And while he runs 2nd to Mamdani, Cuomo’s wide support successful nan disposable polling is betwixt conscionable 24% and 26%.

Resistance to nan erstwhile governor, who near agency successful ungraded 4 years ago, seems to tally high. An Emerson College poll this outpouring gave him a 41-47% favorable/unfavorable people pinch each New York City voters. And a study released Monday by Data for Progress (which has done activity for a pro-Mamdani group) pegged it astatine 39%-59%. At 67, Cuomo’s power level has besides travel into mobility acknowledgment to a constricted nationalist schedule and a bid of nationalist performances that were derided arsenic listless.

The measurement Adams and Sliwa spot it, Cuomo already had his chance to extremity Mamdani, and he demonstrated that he wasn’t up to it. But bully luck convincing Cuomo that either of them would fare immoderate better.

As nan incumbent, Adams has nan expertise to make sound and get attraction practically astatine will. And pinch new numbers showing a diminution successful convulsive crime, Adams is trying to person New Yorkers that he yet has nan metropolis pointed successful nan correct direction.

But his liabilities are enormous. Even earlier his indictment past twelvemonth connected national corruption charges, Adams was an unpopular mayor. And since nan indictment — and possibly moreover much significantly, since President Donald Trump’s Justice Department dropped nan lawsuit — nan level has fallen retired for Adams. The May Emerson canvass put his favorable standing astatine a specified 19%, compared to 68% unfavorable. None of nan post-primary polling has looked immoderate better.

For his part, Sliwa wields a bloc of voters simply by moving connected nan GOP line. Republicans are a decided number successful New York City but still relationship for a small much than 1 successful 10 registered voters. And Sliwa himself is simply a acquainted beingness to New Yorkers: He launched nan Guardian Angels successful nan high-crime 1980s and has remained visible successful section media ever since. But nan limits of his entreaty were seemingly made clear 4 years agone when, arsenic nan GOP nominee against Adams, he earned conscionable 28% of nan ballot and mislaid by 40 points.

And truthful Cuomo, Adams and Sliwa find themselves locked successful a staring contest. Each has a declare to a chunk of nan electorate. Each has a belief that they could hit Mamdani, if only nan others would spell away. And each has each logic to judge that nan others are afloat of it.

That’s each From nan Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Dylan Ebs.

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