The Same Microsoft Surface I Bought 4 Months Ago Is 69% More Expensive Now - Here's Why

Kyle Kucharski/ZDNET

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ZDNET's cardinal takeaways

• Memory and SSD costs could emergence 130% by 2026, driving PC prices up.
• Surface prices surged arsenic overmuch arsenic 69% successful caller months owed to those costs. 
• Rising constituent prices whitethorn shrink PC demand, particularly entry-level options.

You deliberation groceries are expensive? Wait until you perceive what is happening to nan costs of nan representation and retention chips wrong that PC you were reasoning of buying later this year.

According to a recent Gartner report, nan mixed costs of DRAM and SSDs will summation by 130% by nan extremity of 2026. The culprit, of course, is nan insatiable request for representation and retention from unreality providers building AI-related applications, and spot makers will not beryllium capable to drawback up pinch request for different twelvemonth aliases 2 astatine least.

Also: 8GB of RAM is capable for a MacBook successful 2026 - here's why

Those soaring prices are already having an effect connected nan PC market, and nan effect connected Microsoft is particularly severe.

Microsoft Surface prices surge

This week, Windows Central reported that Microsoft has dramatically accrued nan prices of its Surface PCs. I tin personally attest to those increases.

In December 2025, conscionable 4 months ago, I ordered a caller top-of-the-line Surface Pro from nan Microsoft Store. It was configured pinch a Snapdragon X Elite processor, an OLED display, 32GB of RAM, and a 1TB SSD (Type Cover not included). I americium utilizing that PC to constitute this post.

At nan time, that Surface costs a expansive full of $1,822.17, including taxation and a four-year Microsoft Complete warranty, pinch a student/military/employer discount. That seemed for illustration a beautiful bully deal, but I had nary thought conscionable really bully a woody it was until today, erstwhile I checked nan existent value of that nonstop aforesaid configuration. The full measure pinch income taxation came to $3,071.63 -- still pinch nary Type Cover. That is simply a 69% value summation successful only 4 months. Yikes.

Also: I compared virtual RAM pinch existent RAM connected my Windows PC - here's what nan numbers told me

When I checked different Surface devices, I recovered akin value hikes. The slightest costly existent exemplary I could find, nan 12-inch Surface Pro pinch 16GB of RAM and a 256GB SSD, now starts astatine $1,050.00, pinch $50 disconnected if you bargain it astatine Amazon. When it launched 9 months ago, you could find it on waste for $729.

That is simply a 37% value increase, for those keeping score.

A Microsoft spokesperson confirmed that surging prices successful its proviso concatenation are to blame: "Due to caller increases successful representation and constituent costs, Surface is updating pricing connected Microsoft.com for its current-generation hardware portfolio," they said successful an emailed statement. "We stay committed to delivering worth to customers and partners while upholding our standards for value and innovation."

The struggling PC marketplace

Even earlier nan value increases, nan Surface statement was struggling. As I wrote a small complete 2 years ago, "The PC marketplace is going done a awesome correction correct now, and Surface is doing moreover worse than its rivals." It is improbable things person gotten amended since then. Microsoft does not break retired its PC income and shipments, but Gartner's report connected worldwide PC shipments for Q1, released this week, offers immoderate clues.

Year complete year, PC shipments were up 4%, but that number was "artificially inflated [and] not owed to genuine demand," according to Gartner Research Principal Rishi Padhi. The existent origin was vendors and transmission distributors building up inventory levels up of expected value hikes successful Q2. Those value hikes were, of course, "driven by quickly rising memory value ostentation (memflation), arsenic good arsenic DRAM and NAND flash constituent costs. This is particularly existent for lower-margin products."

Also: The MacBook Neo conscionable upended nan fund laptop market

In that environment, Dell and Lenovo accrued income twelvemonth complete year, while HP shipments were down. Microsoft was not moreover successful nan apical six suppliers worldwide, alternatively being grouped into "Others." And that group saw shipments diminution by 4.6%.

Meanwhile, Apple shipments for nan 4th were up 12.7% worldwide, Gartner estimated, "primarily driven by robust request for nan MacBook Neo." More connected that successful a minute.

Gartner predicts that nan mean PC value will summation by 17% by nan extremity of 2026, and that will construe into dramatically little shipments, arsenic businesses and consumers bent connected to existing devices for longer.

"This crisp summation removes vendors' expertise to sorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable," said Gartner elder expert Ranjit Atwal. "Ultimately, we expect nan sub-$500 entry-level PC conception will vanish by 2028. In addition, rising AI PC prices will hold nan projected 50% marketplace penetration of AI PCs until 2028."

That past portion is particularly bad news for Microsoft, which has hitched its wagon to nan AI PC marketplace pinch its Copilot+ PCs. Ironically, its ain spending connected cloud-powered AI services is helping to stall nan marketplace for nan customer devices needed to return advantage of those services.

What makes nan MacBook Neo different?

If crushing increases successful constituent costs are sidesplitting nan inexpensive PC market, why was Apple capable to win pinch its low-cost $599 MacBook Neo? Maybe it is because it does not person to bargain representation connected nan unfastened market.

The MacBook Neo is based connected Apple's A18 Pro SoC, which includes 8GB of RAM arsenic portion of a azygous package (unified memory), conscionable for illustration successful nan iPhone 16 Pro it was primitively designed for. That is why location is nary representation upgrade action for nan Neo. As WCCF Tech reports:

Apple's A18 Pro from 2024 utilizes TSMC's InFO-POP (Integrated Fan-Out Package connected Package) technology, meaning that nan DRAM sits connected apical of nan dice arsenic portion of nan silicon. The exertion elephantine re-purposed nan aforesaid SoC and incorporated it into nan MacBook Neo, which is why nan second is constricted to 8GB of RAM.

That spot is much than capable for powering basal tasks connected a Mac, and it tin tally rings astir entry-level PC processors astatine nan aforesaid value point.

Meanwhile, PC OEMs trying to compete astatine nan debased end, wherever they person ever had a value advantage, do not person that action available. Qualcomm, Intel, and AMD do not person immoderate SoCs pinch integrated representation that tin beryllium turned into a lightweight PC, and moreover if they could, 8GB is not capable to grip nan workloads that Microsoft demands of Windows 11.

Also: Why buying DDR4 RAM is now a smarter play than DDR5

In theory, Apple tin support this up for a fewer much years. The A19 Pro has 12GB of RAM connected committee and could astir apt powerfulness a MacBook Neo 2 adjacent year, while Windows PC makers will person superior problems producing competitory designs nether $1000, astatine slightest not arsenic agelong arsenic those AI information centers proceed their seemingly insatiable demand.

The biggest problem for Apple is that nan MacBook Neo mightiness beryllium too successful. A well-sourced report says nan instrumentality was designed astir "chips that would different person been scrapped — remember, Apple are nan masters astatine recycling! But pinch MacBook Neo being insanely popular, nan banal of those binned chips will tally retired earlier request gets satisfied."

Another report this week from MacRumors sums up nan dilemma, "Apple's first scheme was to person suppliers build astir 5 to six cardinal MacBook Neo units earlier ceasing accumulation of nan exemplary pinch nan A18 Pro chip, he said, but it sounds for illustration request is truthful beardown that Apple mightiness tally retired of A18 Pro chips to put successful nan MacBook Neo earlier nan second-generation MacBook Neo pinch an A19 Pro spot is fresh adjacent year."

That's a bully problem, comparative to nan chaos that PC makers are facing acknowledgment to nan overheated constituent market.

Gartner predicts that worldwide PC shipments will statement by much than 10% successful 2026. But that full includes Macs, Windows PCs, and Chromebooks. I will not beryllium amazed to spot an moreover steeper drop-off for Windows PCs. And anyone who useful successful nan Surface section astatine Microsoft should consciousness particularly nervous.