The Factors That Will Decide The Super Bowl: A Brilliant Receiver, Pass Protection And Explosive Plays

What is nan scheme for Jaxon Smith-Njigba?

The Seattle Seahawks’ tally crippled came live during nan 2nd half of nan play and postseason. But it’s still nan passing crippled that makes nan discourtesy sing. Almost each of that flows done Smith-Njigba.

The wide receiver has played retired of his mind this season. He roasts each protect sum and has shape-shifted into a three-level threat: beating man-coverage quickly disconnected nan snap, showing fearlessness to onslaught nan mediate of nan section and stretching distant from heavy coverage. Klint Kubiak, nan Seahawks’ violative coordinator, has channeled nan full Seattle discourtesy done his prima receiver. Smith-Njigba lines up everywhere: retired wide, successful nan slot, successful nan backfield. From immoderate of those looks, he’s a matchup nightmare. His power has meant that nan Seahawks tin nonstop less receivers retired successful nan route, allowing them to support other players successful to protect Sam Darnold. Only nan Rams sent retired each 5 eligible receivers astatine a little complaint than Seattle this season.

In nan NFC title against nan Rams, Seattle’s rushing onslaught dried up aft an explosive opening. But they continued to person connected third-and-longs acknowledgment to Smith-Njigba, either because of his catches aliases owed to nan gravity he creates for different targets.

Solving nan Smith-Njigba riddle will beryllium nan Patriots’ biggest challenge. They could look to double-team him and unit nan shot elsewhere, aliases works their ain prima player, cornerback Christian Gonzalez, successful a one-on-one matchup and dream for nan best.

Whose walk protection holds up?

The champion measurement to extremity an effective passing attack? Relentlessly unit nan quarterback. Darnold has struggled nether power this season. The Seahawks’ passing crippled ranks sixth successful EPA/dropback erstwhile location is nary unit and drops to 22nd erstwhile location is pressure.

New England’s champion walk rushers – Milton Williams and Christian Barmore – play inside. Both person been outstanding during nan team’s playoff run, and it conscionable truthful happens they lucifer up nicely pinch Seattle’s 2 weakest links. Seahawks correct defender Anthony Bradford has struggled each season. On 10% of plays, he looks for illustration a Hall of Famer, blasting unfastened holes successful nan moving game. On nan different 90%, he’s a mess. Bradford will torpedo his ain linemen successful nan tally crippled and has conceded nan highest unit complaint of immoderate starting lineman successful this year’s Super Bowl. Next to Bradford is halfway Jalen Sundell, who hasn’t looked nan aforesaid since returning from a mid-season injury.

If nan Patriots tin trade one-on-one matchups preying connected Seattle’s weakness, life will beryllium uncomfortable for Darnold. When Darnold is uncomfortable, he plays erratically. To person a changeable against a much talented team, nan Patriots request to unit turnovers. And nan clearest way to that is isolating and attacking Bradford and Sundell.

But nan Patriots person protection problems of their own. The near broadside of their statement features 2 rookies: tackle Will Campbell and defender Jared Wilson. Each has looked wobbly successful nan playoffs. There is nary squad you want to look little than nan Seahawks erstwhile you person a compromised line.

Seattle’s walk unreserved is merciless. They person high-end value and depth. The Seahawks had six different players grounds astatine slightest 35 pressures this twelvemonth – nary different squad had much than 4 players get to that total. They don’t blitz a lot, but erstwhile they do, they’ve been nan astir effective blitzing squad successful nan NFL. For nan Pats rookies, location will beryllium nary reps off.

An discourtesy tin activity astir having 1 sinkhole on nan violative line. Working astir 2 is tough. And moving astir 2 who guidelines adjacent to each different is almost intolerable – you tin inquire past year’s Chiefs astir that. Drake Maye has been other susceptible to unit successful nan postseason, too, pinch his pressure-to-sack complaint jumping to an eye-watering 48%. The Patriots backmost besides has a bad lawsuit of fumble-itis. Sacks (and turnovers) termination drives – and drives will beryllium astatine a premium connected Sunday.

Patriots violative coordinator Josh McDaniels will request to find a solution. During nan playoffs, nan scheme has been to support other players successful nan backfield to thief retired nan rookies. But that compromises nan paper of plays he tin get to successful nan passing game, and will play into nan hands of a Seahawks portion that swamps nan section pinch bodies successful coverage.

All eyes should beryllium connected nan matchup betwixt Campbell and DeMarcus Lawrence, who will beryllium nan champion walk rusher connected nan field. The Seahawks move him each astir nan front, but they’re apt to effort to get him matched up connected Campbell arsenic often arsenic possible. If Campbell tin clasp up Seattle’s champion separator rusher, New England will person a chance to move nan ball. If not, Lawrence will wreck nan Patriots.

Drake Maye and Sam Darnold will commencement successful a Super Bowl for nan first clip successful their careers. Photograph: John G Mabanglo/EPA

Can nan Patriots find explosive plays?

The Patriots led nan NFL successful explosive play complaint during nan regular season, signaling a 10+ gait unreserved aliases 15+ gait walk connected 15.8% of their plays. In ample part, that’s been acknowledgment to nan brilliance of Maye. He is simply a dynamite thrower down nan section and an effective scrambler. But he’s facing a portion that refuses to let chunk yardage. Seattle’s full protect doctrine is to unit quick, short throws earlier flying downhill to create carnage. And they do that amended than immoderate defense successful caller memory.

Trying to rip nan Seahawks cornerbacks complete their heads will beryllium a challenge. The Rams recovered a way successful nan NFC title crippled by focusing connected cornerback Tariq Woolen, a hyperactive subordinate who hunts large plays erstwhile location is nary play to beryllium made. Expect nan Patriots to lucifer up Stefon Diggs, their astir reliable target, pinch Woolen arsenic often arsenic possible. And support an oculus connected Kyle Williams, nan Patriots’ astir electrical receiver. He only plays a fistful of snaps per game, but is put connected nan section solely to pursuit large shots.

Failing that, nan Patriots will request to unit missed tackles. Maye will person to cheque nan shot down to his moving backs against nan Seahawks’ deep, ammunition coverage. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson unit a ton of missed tackles. If they tin scamper distant from Seattle’s defenders, they will person a chance to move unsmooth drives into scoring ones.

The coaching matchup

What makes this matchup truthful intriguing is that it features spot connected spot each complete nan field. The Seahawks do their champion activity moving nan shot from heavier unit groupings. That conscionable truthful happens to beryllium wherever nan Patriots do their champion activity slowing rushing attacks. The Patriots are an explosive, vertical offense. The Seahawks stifle large plays.

The quality betwixt nan 2 teams will beryllium connected nan margins. Who handles nan juncture best? Who makes nan correct fourth-down decisions? Who makes nan correct on-the-fly adjustments erstwhile their walk protection is caving in? Who has saved a fistful of bespoke, payoff plays for this opponent? Which kicker holds his nervus connected section goals?

Patriots caput coach Mike Vrabel has been present before, arsenic a player. Mike Macdonald, Seattle’s caput honcho, has ne'er coached successful nan Super Bowl. Macdonald is simply a protect savant whose portion importantly improves arsenic nan crippled progresses. He figures retired what’s moving and ditches what isn’t. In 4th quarters this year, nan Seahawks defense leads nan convention successful EPA/play, unit complaint and sack rate. Macdonald tin decode really an discourtesy is trying to break down his portion and rotation retired counters of his own.

But he’s going up against personification pinch bags of experience. McDaniels has been connected six Super Bowl-winning staffs. His MO is redeeming thing you haven’t seen earlier for nan biggest imaginable moment. The Seahawks will request to beryllium alert to a wonky statement aliases instrumentality play arsenic nan Patriots look to bargain a possession.

Then location is Vrabel. His calling paper is crippled management, aggression and his knowledge of nan rules. His squad is nan underdog. What does he person nether his vest to support nan matchup adjacent late?

In nan modern era, Super Bowls person typically travel down to 1 aliases 2 plays. The Seahawks person a kicking advantage, but nan Patriots person a coach who has mastered nan creation of navigating one-score games. If nan crippled turns into a slog, nan Patriots person an edge. But they will person to find a measurement to limit nan vulnerability to their violative line, and that seldom useful successful title games.