Strait Of Hormuz Disruption Risks Agri-food “catastrophe”, Fao Says

A position of nan vessels passing done Strait of Hormuz pursuing nan two-week impermanent ceasefire reached betwixt nan US and Iran connected nan information that nan strait beryllium reopened, seen successful Oman connected 8 April 2026. Photo by Shady Alassar/Anadolu via Getty Images

Prolonged disruption to nan Strait of Hormuz could escalate into a world agri-food situation unless vessels carrying workplace inputs resume transit quickly, nan UN Food and Agriculture Organization has warned.

The disruption could lead to a surge successful nutrient ostentation later this twelvemonth and a broader economical fallout reminiscent of nan play aft nan tallness of nan Covid-19 pandemic, nan agency said.

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The FAO said 20% to 45% of exports of cardinal agri-food inputs dangle connected shipping done nan Strait of Hormuz.

It warned if farmers are forced to trim backmost connected input use, harvest yields will diminution later this twelvemonth and into 2027, raising nutrient commodity prices and unit nutrient ostentation for nan adjacent respective years.

FAO agri-food economics section head David Laborde said: “We are successful an input crisis; we don’t want to make it a catastrophe.”

FAO main economist Máximo Torero added: “The past point we want is little harvest yields and higher commodity prices and nutrient ostentation for nan adjacent year.”

The informing comes arsenic broader marketplace interest complete nutrient ostentation has shifted from whether it will hap to when, contempt nan impermanent ceasefire betwixt nan US and Iran.

Higher lipid and state costs are already raising unit crossed nan nutrient chain, while nan Middle East accounts for roughly 40% of world fertiliser exports. 

According to nan FAO, March nutrient prices had been supported by “ample” world supplies, particularly successful cereals, limiting volatility for now.

Pressure will equine successful April and fortify further successful May, erstwhile growers make cardinal planting and input decisions, nan agency said.

Farmers whitethorn move crops successful consequence to nan constricted readiness of fertiliser, while higher lipid prices could besides promote much onshore to beryllium directed toward biofuel accumulation astatine nan disbursal of nutrient output, it added.

The latest FAO Food Price Index offers an early motion of that pressure.

World nutrient commodity prices roseate period connected period successful March, led by rootlike lipid and sugar, mostly owed to nan costs of power tied to nan Iran war, a UN study shows.

The scale averaged 128.5 points successful March, up 2.4% from nan revised February level, marking a 2nd consecutive monthly increase.

All 5 commodity groups tracked by nan scale – cereals, rootlike oils, meat, dairy and sweetener – increased.

The FAO urged governments to debar export restrictions connected power and fertilisers and to reassess biofuel mandates.

It besides said multilateral financing whitethorn beryllium needed for countries astatine consequence of losing entree to basal fertiliser during planting seasons, pointing to devices specified arsenic nan International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) balance-of-payments accommodation and Food Shock Window.

The IMF, World Bank and World Food Programme person likewise warned that rising energy, fertiliser and carrier costs will summation nutrient insecurity, peculiarly successful low-income, import-dependent countries.