Steve Kornacki's Guide To The Ncaa Tournament: Why Kansas Could Be In Trouble, Plus Other Upset Picks

The madness is backmost … aliases is it? The 2026 NCAA Tournament that will extremity disconnected connected Thursday comes astatine a infinitesimal of modulation — and, immoderate say, situation — for nan sport.

I don’t want to sound pessimistic, but it does abruptly look for illustration an unfastened mobility now whether nan type of tourney that for decades has seduced truthful galore fans for illustration maine still exists. My dream is that nan adjacent fewer weeks supply a jolt of reassurance that it still does.

Has Goliath slayed David?

Jaw-dropping upsets made nan NCAA Tournament what it is. They made it consciousness magical and contributed mightily to its enduring appeal. And conscionable a fewer years ago, those Cinderella stories were being written pinch much regularity than ever arsenic No. 15 seeds made it each nan measurement to nan Elite 8 successful 2021 (Oral Roberts) and 2022 (St. Peter’s) and to nan Sweet 16 successful 2023 (Princeton). That 2023 tourney besides included nan second-ever takedown of a No. 1 seed by a No. 16 seed (Fairleigh Dickinson complete Purdue) and a Final Four travel by No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic.

But conscionable for illustration that, nan parade of underdogs has travel to a halt. In each of nan past 2 tournaments, only 1 double-digit seed has made it past nan first play — and some of them were from powerfulness conferences. Last year’s Elite 8 and Final Four matchups were chalk-fests. It’s difficult not to reason that nan melodramatic changes to nan athletics that person travel done NIL and nan transportation portal person benefited nan bluebloods, but person they fundamentally changed nan tourney itself? That anticipation hangs complete this year’s edition. If nan apical seeds and powerfulness conferences crush nan mid-majors erstwhile more, nan shape will beryllium each nan much apparent. We’re astir to find retired if location is still immoderate magic near successful March.

If there’s going to beryllium immoderate magic…

I’ve sewage to judge it tin still happen, truthful I person my oculus connected 3 imaginable first-round upsets. And I mean existent upsets — not underachieving powerfulness convention teams pinch double-digit seeds.

No. 12 Akron complete No. 5 Texas Tech

Conference rival Miami (Ohio) sewage each of nan attention, but nan Zips whitethorn really person been nan amended squad successful nan MAC. They narrowly mislaid to Miami successful January and person won 19 of 20 games since past pinch their only nonaccomplishment coming to a very bully Troy squad (more connected nan Trojans successful a minute). Texas Tech, meanwhile, mislaid prima JT Toppin a period agone and seems to beryllium emotion nan effects, dropping 3 consecutive heading into this game.

No. 13 Troy complete No. 4 Nebraska

The Trojans went retired West early this play and knocked disconnected San Diego State, 1 of nan first 4 teams near retired of nan tourney by nan action committee. Two nights later, they took USC to triple-overtime connected nan roadworthy earlier falling by a point.

Troy is tin of playing pinch a powerfulness convention opponent, particularly 1 for illustration Nebraska, which aft a 20-0 commencement to nan play has gone conscionable 6-6 down nan stretch. The Cornhuskers person ne'er won an NCAA Tournament game, but they person been victims of respective first-round upsets. This could beryllium 1 much of those.

No. 13 California Baptist complete No. 5 Kansas

Darryn Peterson #22 of nan Kansas Jayhawks drives to nan handbasket against nan TCU Horned Frogs connected March 12, 2026 successful Kansas City, MO.Ed Zurga / Getty Images

The Lancers employment a unsocial defense and boast 1 of nan apical scorers successful nan state successful Dominique Daniels. But this prime is much rooted successful my doubts astir Kansas. They are talented and capable, to beryllium sure, pinch wins complete some Arizona and Houston. But they tin beryllium baffling too, pinch blowout losses to Cincinnati and Arizona State, and nary 1 knows which type of their prima Darryn Peterson will show up. Since winning nan nationalist title successful 2022, nan Jayhawks person yet to make it retired of nan first weekend. There are capable mobility marks present to get maine dreaming of a classical March Madness upset.

The different benignant of Cinderella

Last year’s “Cinderella” was No. 10 seed, Arkansas. Two years ago, it was No. 11 seed, N.C. State. If a caller era is dawning, this whitethorn beryllium nan type of March magic we now person to settee for — teams who vanished successful nan bottommost half of powerfulness conferences getting connected a rotation erstwhile it really counts. Who could beryllium this year’s version? It mightiness beryllium Texas A&M, nan No. 10 seed successful nan South.

The Aggies play “Bucky Ball,” nan relentless, up-tempo style that tin flummox foes. It’s go nan trademark of their first-year coach Bucky McMillan, who astir led Samford to an upset of Kansas successful nan 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Potential matchup I’m astir looking guardant to

No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas successful nan Sweet 16

The tournament’s apical wide seed, Duke, has to contend pinch a stacked region successful nan East, which intends that nan very flimsy favourite to trim down nan nets successful astir betting markets is really Arizona. They are surely worthy of that distinction. The Wildcats are 32-2 wide and participate nan tourney connected a nine-game winning streak that includes 4 wins against top-10 teams. They are nan champion squad from nan champion convention and characteristic an unusually balanced attack; each 5 starters mean double digits successful scoring. But what a trial they could get successful nan Sweet 16 from Arkansas and its prima defender Darius Acuff Jr., who is possibly nan astir explosive and breathtaking prima successful nan tournament. He averages 22 points a crippled but scored much than that successful each 4 SEC tourney games, starring nan Razorbacks to their first convention crown successful 26 years. The victor of this crippled — if it comes to walk — mightiness conscionable support rolling each nan measurement to nan title.

The NCAA Tournament victor (or buss of death) will be...

This is what has go of my nationalist title prime successful each of nan past 5 tournaments:

2021: Illinois mislaid successful nan Round of 32

2022: Villanova mislaid successful nan Final Four

2023: Duke mislaid successful nan Round of 32

2024: Auburn mislaid successful nan Round of 64

2025: St. John’s mislaid successful nan Round of 32

That is simply atrocious, to nan constituent that I’m wondering if by picking a squad I americium really conjuring immoderate benignant of mysterious unit to thwart them. Given this chopped possibility, I cannot successful bully conscience take nan squad that I want to triumph it each and that, heavy inside, I deliberation could make a existent tally (I won’t opportunity nan name, but it rhymes pinch “St. Bohn’s”). So instead, I’ll spell pinch nan extent and equilibrium of long-overdue Arizona. Wildcat fans, I’m sorry to do this to you.