Off-year Election Losses Spark Republican Concerns About Redistricting

President Donald Trump is assured that he drew nan correct conflict lines erstwhile he launched a nationwide redistricting conflict to effort to sphere nan Republican House majority, GOP strategists acquainted pinch nan White House’s reasoning opportunity — moreover aft Tuesday’s predetermination results gave Democrats openings to counterstrike successful California and Virginia.

“The president understands intuitively, successful a measurement that different Republicans don’t … that Democrats are ever assaulting us, always, and mostly overmuch of nan Republican Party ne'er fights back,” said 1 of nan strategists acquainted pinch nan White House approach. “The redistricting conflict is impervious that they are not that way. So this is successful his DNA successful a measurement that is not successful different Republicans’ DNA.”

The strategist, for illustration others successful this article, was granted anonymity to speak candidly astir backstage conversations.

But 2 different Republicans adjacent to nan White House told NBC News that location are increasing concerns successful nan statement that nan governmental warfare is not going arsenic planned — that nan juice whitethorn not person been worthy nan compression and could, successful a nightmare scenario, consequence successful a nett summation for Democrats. And wrong broader GOP circles, misgivings astir nan strategy heightened past week aft California voters overwhelmingly approved Gov. Gavin Newsom’s scheme to redraw nan state’s legislature districts successful a mode that Democrats dream will flip 5 House seats successful their direction.

Still, White House officials opportunity that nan president remains successful conflict mode erstwhile it comes to redistricting.

President Donald Trump boards Air Force One connected Nov. 5 astatine Joint Base Andrews.Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images

In caller days, aides person presented Trump pinch 3 scenarios for nan wide result of nan redistricting fight, nary of which see Republicans losing seats erstwhile each nan maps are finalized, according to nan GOP strategist acquainted pinch nan White House approach. The variables see really nan Supreme Court rules connected an upcoming lawsuit astir nan Voting Rights Act, which impedes states from diluting nan voting powerfulness of minorities, and whether courts will artifact Democratic plans successful California and Virginia.

The strategist said location was a “bad-luck Republicans, good-luck Democrats” scenario, which would consequence successful “basically a lavation of seats” but pinch immoderate Republican-held seats successful reddish states becoming much unafraid than they are now.

The 2 different scenarios, nan personification said, would consequence successful Republicans picking up betwixt 5 and 9 seats, and a third, best-case script would spot nan GOP prime up seats “into double digits substantially.”

The scope of scenarios depends not only connected a astonishment Democratic push to redraw Virginia, but besides connected outcomes successful respective reddish states. A discuss scheme successful Ohio and delays successful Indiana and Kansas, wherever nan White House hopes Republicans tin compression much GOP seats retired of caller maps, coupled pinch California’s ballot inaugural win, near Democrats pinch momentum past week — and Trump pinch immoderate grade of heartburn, 1 of nan sources said.

“For a fewer weeks now, he’s had nan knowing that they were going to suffer Prop 50,” a Republican operative adjacent to nan White House said, adding that Trump has been readying to writer California complete nan ballot measurement while believing it was a bad thought to get progressive successful nan fight.

The original impetus for Trump’s unprecedented run to tie caller territory lines successful nan mediate of nan decade was nan fearfulness that Republicans’ meager two-seat cushion successful nan House aft nan 2024 predetermination mightiness beryllium excessively constrictive to withstand nan winds of a midterm election, which historically favors nan out-of-power party. Republicans acquainted pinch nan origins of nan strategy opportunity that it stemmed from a position that past redistricting successful Democratic-held states had put nan GOP astatine an unfair disadvantage.

“It’s a truth that nan Democrat Party has been redistricting maps successful their favour for decades — conscionable look astatine Illinois,” White House property caput Karoline Leavitt said, pointing to a authorities wherever Democrats clasp 14 of 17 House seats contempt Trump having won 43% of nan ballot successful nan authorities successful 2024. “President Trump wants Republicans to play reliable and smart.” To antagonistic that, Trump and his advisers pressed Republican-led states to redraw their lines — starting pinch Texas, wherever Trump’s expertise to connect pinch Hispanic voters successful 2024 opened up nan possibility of adding arsenic galore arsenic 5 seats to nan Republican column.

The redistricting authorities of play

The stakes could hardly beryllium higher.

Not only would Trump’s legislative schedule beryllium imperiled by a Democratic takeover of nan House, but besides his management would surely look myriad investigations and he could beryllium impeached for a 3rd time. Twice during his first term, nan Democratic-run House voted to impeach him — and each time, Senate Republicans produced capable votes to forestall his conviction.

“With a constrictive mostly heading into a midterm, they request much seats for a buffer successful bid to clasp nan House. If they tin yet nett 5 aliases six seats, past it will beryllium nan communicative of nan midterms of occurrence for Republicans,” said 1 GOP strategist who is profoundly progressive successful House races. “If nan full point present was to nett 1 spot crossed nan country, past it will not person been worthy it.”

Fresh disconnected a expanse successful Virginia’s off-year elections past week, including Abigail Spanberger’s 15-point triumph for nan governor’s office, Democrats are threatening to redraw that state’s representation to flip respective much seats into their column. Their assurance successful their expertise to triumph recently drawn districts successful California and different states — and to minimize GOP gains successful Texas and elsewhere — was buoyed by nan margins Spanberger and New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill racked up Tuesday.

Erin Covey, a nonpartisan predetermination expert who is nan House editor astatine The Cook Political Report pinch Amy Walter, said that aft nan latest elections, there’s a consequence for Republicans that their redistricting push whitethorn not nett them arsenic galore seats arsenic they hoped.

Pointing to beardown Democratic showings successful predominantly Hispanic areas of Virginia and New Jersey, Covey said there’s a clear “uncertainty” arsenic to whether Hispanic voters will show up for nan GOP adjacent twelvemonth for illustration they did for Trump successful 2024, peculiarly successful states for illustration Texas.

“That does not bode good for Republicans banking connected Hispanic voters to thief them support their mostly adjacent twelvemonth — but it doesn’t needfully mean we’ll spot Republican incumbents who would beryllium successful safe seats abruptly look susceptible each of a sudden,” she said, adding she believes nan results among Hispanic voters this November stem from a operation of them coming backmost astir for Democrats arsenic good arsenic others conscionable not turning retired for Republicans.

The truth is that nan nett effect of each nan gerrymandering won’t beryllium afloat known until elections are held successful nan caller districts, immoderate of which are drawn pinch specified constrictive advantage for either Republicans aliases Democrats that a flimsy displacement successful nan nationalist governmental situation — aliases nan value of candidates moving successful them — could beryllium pivotal to nan outcomes.

“I deliberation ‘concern’ is simply a adjacent measurement to opportunity it,” a 2nd Republican who is adjacent to nan White House said of nan president’s sentiments, adding: ”In Texas, I do deliberation location is immoderate consciousness those seats will beryllium ours, but thing is guaranteed, truthful immoderate interest there.” Still, proponents of nan White House’s tack opportunity they spot nary logic to backmost disconnected aliases constituent fingers.

“I stay beautiful optimistic astir everything,” said 1 personification acquainted pinch nan White House goals successful pressing for caller maps. “In summation to inaccurate, it’s premature to opportunity that it hasn’t been a success.”

With nan tight margins successful nan House and nan anticipation of squeezing much seats retired of redistricting, this personification said, “How tin you not try?” “At that point,” nan personification added, “it becomes malpractice.”

Bumps successful nan road

Trump is besides uncovering that executing rewrites of legislature districts requires astatine slightest arsenic overmuch governmental musculus arsenic it does cartographic skill.

While Democrats person faced obstacles to redrawing galore bluish states successful nan shape of state constitutions, courts and some of their ain legislators, immoderate Republicans person not gone on pinch nan White House’s plans. Over nan summer, New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte threw acold h2o connected nan thought of redrawing nan state’s 2 legislature districts to effort to return 1 from Democrats.

In Ohio, Republican legislators person agreed to a caller map that is much generous to Democrats than initially expected — nan consequence of fears that an overly fierce attack could person unintended consequences.

While nan contours of that realignment were being debated, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries signaled liking successful supporting a statewide redistricting referendum successful 2026, which could person stiff nan existent representation successful spot until voters had their say, each while flooding nan authorities pinch Democratic money and organizers that could person helped assistance nan party’s midterm candidates for politician and Senate. That script was very overmuch connected White House officials’ minds arsenic they sorted retired redistricting options pinch Ohio Republicans, 2 group acquainted pinch nan discussions said.

“That was very straight communicated,” said 1 personification who was progressive successful nan talks and granted anonymity to stock specifications from backstage conversations. “I was told specifically that they felt for illustration if they weighed successful and made this nan ‘White House map’ aliases ‘Trump’s map,’ that nan Democrats would balk and that nan full woody would rustle up. So I do deliberation that was portion of nan calculation.”

“The truth that you’ve seen, essentially, nary comment, I deliberation that benignant of corroborates it,” this personification added.

Some Republicans, including respective Trump-aligned activists, person criticized nan discuss representation successful Ohio because it makes a toss-up territory represented by Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes moreover much favorable to Democrats while presenting only 1 coagulated pickup opportunity. No 1 from nan White House, including Trump and Vice President JD Vance, who represented nan authorities successful nan Senate, has weighed successful publically connected nan map. But nan personification progressive successful nan talks described Trump management officials arsenic good pinch nan deal.

“The White House conscionable benignant of took a position of, we’ll telephone it neutrality — wherever it was like, ‘We’re not going to spell retired and person a parade, but we’re comfortable pinch what’s been explained to us,” this personification said.

The dynamics of a imaginable backfire are different successful Texas, nan first battlefront successful Trump’s redistricting war.

Even arsenic Trump pressured Texas legislators to redraw their maps, and gave short shrift to their concerns, immoderate Republican members of Congress from nan authorities expressed interest that shifting GOP voters into caller districts could endanger immoderate incumbents successful nan state. Aggressive redistricting plans thin to create clash betwixt nan party’s liking successful winning a greater number of seats and nan accrued electoral consequence for incumbents who person to springiness up loyal constituents successful bid to make caller districts much competitive.

The Texas lines

Democrats, and immoderate critics wrong nan Republican Party, opportunity that nan Texas methodology — which redrew nan lines truthful that each GOP campaigner would tally successful a territory successful which Trump won by astatine slightest 10 percent points successful 2024 — relies excessively heavy connected nan president’s astir caller capacity arsenic a metric for House races successful nan 2026 midterms. If legislature candidates can’t replicate that, they could beryllium successful for competitory races.

For example, Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Texas, now sits successful a territory that Trump won by almost 18 percent points past year. But Trump won it by only 2 percent points successful 2020. In 2018, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott mislaid that turf by 11 percent points. And Abbott won it by only 6 percent points successful 2022.

The inclination statement is intelligibly Republican red, but immoderate successful nan GOP fearfulness that Trump’s 2024 results pinch Latinos were a high-water mark, particularly astatine a clip erstwhile voters opportunity they are worried astir nan authorities of nan system and Trump’s migration policies person roiled Latino communities crossed nan country.

Trump’s squad is satisfied that Texas will spell arsenic planned.

“They are very, very cognizant of what nan maps look for illustration successful Texas,” nan personification acquainted pinch nan White House attack said, pushing backmost connected nan contented of critics.

Still, nan results of Tuesday’s elections — which showed GOP gains among Hispanic voters receding successful New Jersey and Virginia — could beryllium a reddish emblem for nan GOP successful Texas.

In Texas, GOP advisor and information intelligence John Eakin told NBC News that immoderate Republicans successful nan authorities are regretting their fierce caller representation already, worried that overconfidence successful nan 2024 results for Trump — which he describes arsenic an exception, alternatively than a reliable baseline — could backfire.

“They should person ne'er drawn maps based connected nan 2024 outcome. You can’t accent trial that. You person to find nan astir susceptible predetermination and build nan premise astir that,” he said.

Eakin went connected to constituent to eyepopping results successful a Dallas-area typical authorities Senate election, wherever nan apical Democrat location importantly overperformed, compared to nan 2024 results, and precocious to nan runoff arsenic nan race’s apical vote-getter. It’s results for illustration that, he says, that make him tense astir 2026.

“”Nobody wants to spell against Trump successful this territory representation because they fearfulness him. They’ve pushed nan letter cover and it’s going to travel backmost to wound them successful nan ass,” he said.

“They’re precocious arsenic a f---ing kite disconnected of 2024,” he added.