'not A Done Deal': Democrats Start To Sweat Over Virginia's Redistricting Referendum

After putting an fierce redraw of nan state’s legislature map earlier voters, immoderate Virginia Democrats are increasing uneasy astir its prospects for transition 1 period retired from nan typical election.

Virginia Democrats entered 2026 riding a activity of momentum, comfortably flipping nan governorship and expanding their mostly successful nan authorities House successful past fall’s elections. And heading into nan April contest, they clasp monolithic fundraising and advertisement spending advantages.

But recently, nan realities of waging a unsocial run successful a authorities that isn’t astir arsenic Democratic arsenic California, wherever voters approved a redrawn map done a akin process past year, person begun to group in.

Some supporters of nan Virginia referendum admit nan situation of convincing voters to backmost a gerrymandered representation erstwhile Democrats, who respective years agone backed nan statement of nan state’s bipartisan redistricting commission, person criticized Republicans for akin moves.

Virginia voters are besides not accustomed to going to nan polls successful April, erstwhile Democrats scheduled nan typical election, making turnout peculiarly unpredictable.

And caller polling showing mixed views of nan ballot referendum and immoderate favorable early voting numbers for Republicans has only added to Democrats’ anxieties.

“It’s not a done woody by immoderate means,” said Rep. Don Beyer, D-Va. “We person to efficaciously make nan lawsuit that moreover though this seems unfair successful Virginia, it’s wholly adjacent for America, for those of america who judge that taking backmost nan House is nan astir important point we tin do to extremity Donald Trump.”

Under nan projected representation successful Virginia, Democrats would beryllium successful a position to summation arsenic galore arsenic 4 of nan 5 seats presently held by Republicans successful this fall’s midterm elections, erstwhile power of nan narrowly divided House is up for grabs.

By comparison, Democrats successful deep-blue California are hoping to prime up 5 of nan 8 Republican-controlled seats pinch their caller legislature boundaries.

“It’s very easy to say, ‘Well, California conscionable did this, and truthful nan aforesaid point is going to hap successful Virginia. But that ignores nan reality that Virginia is simply a purple state,” said 1 Democratic operative adjacent to nan run supporting nan measurement who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “There’s a batch of factors you can’t power astir who’s going to beryllium an progressive subordinate successful this predetermination until nan past minute. It’s a random April election. We’re talking astir reaching voters who are taught to cheque retired astir this clip of twelvemonth and cheque backmost successful nan summer.”

The April predetermination is nan latest beforehand successful nan unusually progressive mid-decade redistricting battle. The push successful Virginia came successful consequence to President Donald Trump pressuring GOP-led states to redraw their maps to statement up nan party’s constrictive House majority. Six states — including Texas, Missouri and North Carolina connected nan GOP broadside — enacted caller maps past year, while nan biggest Democratic counterattack came successful California.

The process successful Virginia has been especially complex: Before putting it connected nan ballot, lawmakers were required to walk a law amendment to temporarily bypass nan state’s redistricting committee during 2 abstracted legislative sessions, pinch an predetermination successful between.

But voters whitethorn not moreover person nan last opportunity connected nan matter. While nan Virginia Supreme Court has allowed nan typical predetermination to move forward, it besides reserved nan correct to norm connected nan legality of nan measurement aft nan race.

Still, nan main group supporting nan redistricting referendum has established a important financial advantage.

That group, called Virginians for Fair Elections, has already spent aliases reserved $17.2 cardinal connected ads from Jan. 1 done April 21, according to nan ad-tracking patient AdImpact. Meanwhile, nan superior group opposing nan effort, Virginians for Fair Maps, has spent aliases reserved $1 cardinal complete nan aforesaid period.

The measure’s supporters person utilized galore of their ads to reason nan alteration to nan map-drawing process became basal aft Trump’s redistricting pushes successful Republican-led states.

One Virginians for Fair Elections ad features erstwhile President Barack Obama saying that “Republicans want to bargain capable seats successful Congress to rig nan adjacent predetermination and wield unchecked powerfulness for 2 much years,” adding, “but you tin extremity them.”

In another spot, a narrator highlights that Trump “told Texas to rig their legislature maps” — and that “we tin extremity Trump by voting for adjacent elections.” Notably, nan advertisement paints nan Virginia measurement arsenic a “temporary hole to level nan playing field.” And different casts “MAGA Republicans redrawing legislature maps” arsenic “one of nan biggest threats to populist ever.”

The projected law amendment would return legislature mapmaking powers to nan bipartisan committee aft nan 2030 census.

Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who approached nan rumor cautiously during her winning run past fall, besides recorded a video expressing her support for nan redistricting push.

In a connection to NBC News, she said she saw nan referendum arsenic a “temporary, responsive action to reside nan redistricting efforts of different states” and that “Virginia voters merit nan opportunity to respond to nan President’s nationwide unit campaign.”

Ads tally by Virginians for Fair Maps person hammered nan process utilized by Democratic lawmakers and person connected it to an effort to reason Trump and Republicans connected immigration.

“Richmond politicians are drafting caller legislature districts to rig nan crippled for themselves,” a narrator says in 1 ad, adding that nan move would “protect sanctuary metropolis policies that put vulnerable criminal aliens backmost connected our streets.”

Another spot highlights really voters passed a law amendment that created nan bipartisan redistricting committee successful 2020 by astir a 2-to-1 margin.

“Republicans and Democrats worked together to get politicians retired of nan business of picking their ain voters,” nan narrator says successful that spot, adding that a triumph would “end competitory elections successful Virginia and soundlessness your voice.”

Meanwhile, different group opposed to nan measurement sent retired mailers targeting Black voters pinch Jim Crow-era images, sparking an outcry.

Recent polling has shown that Virginians backmost nan bipartisan redistricting commission, but are little definite astir nan Democratic-backed referendum.

A Roanoke College poll of Virginia residents conducted successful mid-February recovered that 62% supported nan state’s existent method of drafting legislature maps. Asked astir nan law amendment, 44% said they’d ballot to o.k. it, while 52% said they’d for illustration to support nan existent process.

A mid-January canvass of Virginia registered voters from Christopher Newport University likewise recovered that 63% were successful favour of nan existent map-drawing process. But this study showed a flimsy majority, 51%, besides backed nan impermanent law amendment, while 43% opposed it.

Threading nan needle of not wholly dismissing nan committee while pushing for a much partisan representation represents a large hurdle for nan referendum’s supporters — 1 underscored by nan truth that immoderate Democrats are aggressively opposed to nan amendment.

“There’s a large group of group that don’t for illustration Donald Trump — for illustration maine — that are worried astir him stealing nan midterms and ruining our populist — for illustration maine — but who don’t deliberation this is simply a smart measurement to conflict back, aliases that we moreover request to do this successful Virginia,” said Brian Cannon, a Democratic operative successful Virginia who advocated for transition of nan bipartisan redistricting commission.

Cannon, who now useful for nan nonpartisan predetermination betterment statement FairVote and helps to lead nan group No Gerrymandering Virginia, asked: “As we conflict Trump, are we becoming what we abhor?”

That sentiment is 1 of respective dynamics starring Republicans and opponents of nan redistricting measurement to consciousness bullish.

“We person seen a marked summation successful power and, frankly, anger connected nan portion of nan voters who are starting to recognize what’s going on,” said erstwhile Republican Rep. Eric Cantor of Virginia, a co-chair of Virginians for Fair Maps. “And I do consciousness that that anger is simply a beardown motivator for group to move retired for a ballot successful April.”

Pointing to a Virginia Public Access Project study of nan early vote, which kicked disconnected March 6, Cantor said those totals were trending “our way, particularly successful Republican areas.”

“We consciousness really bully astir wherever we are,” he said.

Democrats opportunity they person their activity trim retired for them successful nan closing weeks of nan campaign.

Beyer, who represents a solidly Democratic bluish Virginia district, said they will request to seduce voters to “hold their chemoreceptor connected gerrymandering because this is simply a consequence to Trump’s gerrymandering.”

“We don’t for illustration doing it. It is temporary, and nan replacement is to rotation complete and fto nan bad guys cheat,” he added.