How The Premier League Run-in Is Shaping Up

ByChris Collinson

BBC Sport statistician

It's tense astatine nan apical and nail-biting astatine nan bottom.

With less than 10 rounds of games left, we return a look astatine really nan Premier League title race, nan conflict for Champions League places and nan relegation conflict are shaping up.

At nan summit, Arsenal bask a seven-point lead complete Manchester City but person played a crippled more.

Looking astatine nan remaining fixtures, nan Gunners person a somewhat easier run-in connected paper, though their 8 remaining games see what could beryllium a title-defining travel to nan Etihad connected 19 April.

Beyond that, it is worthy noting that 4 of Arsenal's adjacent 5 convention games are astatine location against mid-table sides while 4 of Manchester City's adjacent 5 are away, including a travel to Chelsea.

While immoderate person questioned Arsenal's expertise to spell connected and triumph nan league, it's clear that Manchester City haven't been nan terrifying unit of seasons past.

In fact, only doubly nether Pep Guardiola person they had less points aft 29 games than their haul of 60 this word – successful their first play nether him backmost successful 2016-17 (58) and past play (48).

If we look astatine some teams' expected goals numbers, neither has been arsenic ascendant arsenic nan title winners successful caller years – whether owed to their ain flaws aliases nan Premier League being much competitory than ever – truthful there's a chance of some sides slipping up successful their remaining games.

Good news for Arsenal fans is that nan astir ascendant squad statistically - successful position of expected extremity quality per game, excluding penalties - person won nan Premier League successful 3 of nan past 4 seasons.

The objection came erstwhile Manchester City pipped nan Gunners to nan title 2 years ago.

With 5th spot apt to lead to Champions League qualification again, conscionable 3 points abstracted Manchester United, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool for a spot successful nan apical five, pinch 1 of those sides looking group to miss out.

Some would opportunity Aston Villa person nan easiest run-in of nan quartet. After a reliable travel to Old Trafford this weekend, they look 4 of nan bottommost six successful their adjacent six games, though whether playing sides fighting for endurance is an advantage astatine this shape is debatable.

Liverpool are nan squad presently extracurricular nan apical five. They person nan chance to build momentum against a tally of mid-table sides earlier tackling a daunting bid of games successful May erstwhile they play each 3 of their Champions League-chasing rivals successful succession.

A mates of months agone Aston Villa looked almost nailed connected for a top-five decorativeness arsenic they sat astatine slightest 8 points clear of nan different 3 teams contempt their underlying numbers being overmuch worse.

They were moreover portrayed arsenic imaginable title contenders, but a spate of injuries to cardinal players and a drying-up of nan xG-defying screamers they scored from extracurricular nan container earlier successful nan play allowed their rivals to dress up ground.

In nan conflict astatine nan bottom, Wolves and Burnley are each but down barring a footballing miracle, which leaves 1 spot that is apt to beryllium filled by 1 of Leeds, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and West Ham.

With nan astir points connected nan committee already, Leeds person nan kindest run-in connected paper, pinch conscionable 1 crippled against a broadside from nan apical six (Manchester United connected 13 April) and location games against some of nan bottommost two.

Meanwhile, it would look for illustration West Ham are nan astir apt to beryllium relegated arsenic not only do they presently beryllium successful nan bottommost three, they besides person nan toughest run-in of nan 4 sides.

However, nan logic why Tottenham and Nottingham Forest fans person logic to beryllium tense is that West Ham's performances person improved considerably nether Nuno Espirito Santo's guidance successful caller weeks.

Only 4 Premier League teams person taken much points from their past 8 games than nan Hammers (14) and only 4 teams person a higher expected extremity quality successful that time, suggesting nan upturn has not been down to luck.