How Texas' Proposed Map Would Affect The Battle For The House: From The Politics Desk

Welcome to nan online type of From nan Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you nan NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and study from nan White House, Capitol Hill and nan run trail.

Happy Tuesday! Thanks to Scott Bland for helming nan vessel while I was connected vacation.

In today’s edition, Steve Kornacki breaks down really Donald Trump’s 2024 margins successful Texas’ legislature districts would alteration nether nan GOP’s projected map, and what that intends for nan 2026 title for nan House majority. Plus, Shannon Pettypiece examines nan fears that Trump is undermining nan reliability of authorities data.

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— Adam Wollner

How Texas’ projected representation would impact nan conflict for nan House

Analysis by Steve Kornacki

The caller legislature representation projected by Texas Republicans has yet to beryllium enacted and whitethorn still beryllium altered, but it makes clear nan party’s intent to prime up 5 caller seats from nan authorities successful adjacent year’s midterms.

Under nan proposal, 3 districts presently represented by Democrats would beryllium transformed into Republican bastions. All 3 went decisively for Kamala Harris successful past year’s election, but based connected nan caller lines would person backed Donald Trump by double digits. There are besides 2 Democrats presently representing districts that voted for Trump past year. Those districts would go moreover much pro-Trump nether nan GOP’s plan.

Overall, location wouldn’t beryllium a azygous territory successful which nan statesmanlike title was decided by azygous digits successful Texas.

If enacted, a Republican summation of 3 seats from this scheme seems almost automatic. But location would apt beryllium suspense successful South Texas, wherever nan 2 Democrats targeted — Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez — would each person a fighting chance to bent on.

While this heavy Hispanic separator region has historically been overwhelmingly Democratic, Trump made staggering inroads present successful nan past 2 elections. But locally, Democrats still clasp astir offices and clasp a powerful infrastructure. It’s an unfastened mobility whether this support for Trump will manifest itself successful turnout for Republican candidates erstwhile nan president himself isn’t connected nan ballot.

On paper, Cuellar has nan amended chance of surviving. He was re-elected by 5 points past twelvemonth moreover arsenic Trump carried his 28th District by 7 points. Under nan GOP’s projected lines, Trump’s separator would tick up to 10 points, a tougher slog for Cuellar but 1 that his 2024 capacity suggests he tin handle. Of course, Cuellar faces different shape of governmental threat arsenic good successful nan shape of federal corruption charges. If he isn’t successful nan operation successful 2026, his spot will go vastly harder for Democrats to keep.

As for Gonzalez, he held connected to his spot by astir 3 points past year, arsenic Trump won nan 34th District by 4 points. That Trump separator would swell to 10 points pinch nan caller GOP map, making Gonzalez an underdog — particularly pinch Republicans recruiting a beardown challenger. But if adjacent year’s midterm situation is favorable to Democrats, Gonzalez would surely beryllium competitive, particularly pinch Trump’s sanction absent from nan ballot.

Nationally, Texas Republicans’ scheme would summation nan number of Democrats representing districts that voted for Trump past twelvemonth to 16. And pinch Ohio Republicans poised to embark connected their ain redistricting effort, that number would apt emergence further to 18 aliases 19. These added pick-up opportunities are important to nan GOP’s chance of holding nan House: A net-loss of conscionable 3 seats would manus power to Democrats.

The latest connected nan Texas redistricting fight:

• Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows quickly gaveled nan enclosure in and retired of session today, lacking nan minimum number of authorities lawmakers to move connected to regular business aft dozens of Democrats fled nan state.
• Appearing alongside Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and a group of Texas House Democrats, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said that his party is “not rolling over” to Trump and bringing “a weapon to a weapon fight.”
• Pritzker said he would consider calling a typical convention to reopen Illinois’ legislature maps, wherever Democrats already power 14 of 17 seats.
• GOP Sen. John Cornyn is urging nan FBI to assist Texas rule enforcement agencies successful uncovering aliases arresting Democratic legislators who near nan state.
• Some Republicans representing competitory districts successful bluish states are speaking retired against their party’s push to redraw legislature lines successful Texas.

How Trump is reshaping authorities data

By Shannon Pettypiece

Meteorological information collected by immoderate upwind balloons has been halted. Statistics for HIV among transgender group were scrubbed from nan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website. And basal nationalist figures, for illustration really galore group activity for nan national government, person been stiff aliases delayed for months.

Across nan national government, President Donald Trump has been wielding his power complete information utilized by researchers, economists and scientists, an effort that was playing retired mostly down nan scenes until Friday, erstwhile he fired nan caput of nan Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The agency collects and publishes economical data, and Trump accused its erstwhile chief, Erika McEntarfer, of giving clone employment information past week showing a caller slowdown successful nan labour market.

“The numbers were rigged. Biden wasn’t doing well, he was doing poorly,” Trump said in an question and reply connected CNBC, referring to nan jobs numbers.

Presidents of some governmental parties often activity to rotation authorities information to their benefit, cherry-picking numbers that put their agendas successful nan champion ray possible. But McEntarfer’s firing has drawn disapproval from economists, Wall Street investors and moreover Republicans who are raising wider concerns astir nan continued reliability of authorities information erstwhile seen arsenic nan golden standard.

“We person to look location for nonsubjective statistics. When nan group providing nan statistic are fired, it makes it overmuch harder to make judgments that, you know, nan statistic won’t beryllium politicized,” Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., said successful an interview. “You can’t really make nan numbers different aliases amended by firing nan group doing nan counting.”

Read much from Shannon →

That’s each From nan Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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