High Beef Prices Will Likely Linger, Even After Cookout Season Ends

Beef prices are coming successful basking this summer.

Steak and crushed beef prices conscionable deed grounds highs, according to June ostentation information from nan Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has tracked beef prices going backmost to 1984. Still, request has stayed strong. Beef is nan second most-consumed nutrient successful nan U.S., aft all, and summertime barbecue play is simply a peculiarly celebrated time.

“Peak request clip for beef typically happens astir nan Fourth of July,” said Bernt Nelson, an cultivation economist astatine nan American Farm Bureau Federation. “Through nan 2nd half of nan year, request benignant of slows down seasonally for beef.” That intends prices could besides travel down a bit.

But moreover aft Americans put their grills distant for nan season, nan U.S. beef manufacture will proceed grappling pinch semipermanent proviso issues.

Cattle herds person been shrinking complete nan past fewer decades. They dropped different 1% from 2024 to 2025, according to nan U.S. Department of Agriculture. The number of beef cows that person calved is besides down 1%, reaching a caller grounds low. That intends nan existent cattle herd is nan nation’s smallest since 1951, according to nan Farm Bureau.

Climate issues person exacerbated nan shortage. Agricultural experts opportunity drought over nan past fewer years successful nan Plains and Upper Midwest has dried up nan proviso of writer for cattle. It has forced farmers to trim their flocks, and nan cattle count still hasn’t recovered.

“The drought conditions really placed a batch of accent connected our farmers and their pastures that they trust connected to thief provender cattle,” Nelson said. “When this happened, they placed precocious numbers of females connected provender for marketplace alternatively than holding them backmost to switch nan herd. And truthful that led america to this slow but dependable contraction successful nan cattle herd.”

Import issues person besides restricted nan cattle supply. The U.S. authorities suspended cattle imports from Mexico successful May owed to nan parasitic screwworm affecting cattle there.

More challenges await. President Donald Trump’s threatened 50% tariff connected imports from Brazil, slated to commencement Aug. 1, could tighten proviso moreover more. About 8% of U.S. beef is imported from places for illustration Brazil, Argentina and Australia, said Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo’s main cultivation economist. With nan looming tariffs, Brazilian meatpackers are rethinking exporting to nan U.S., according to an manufacture lobby group.

Ground beef is averaging $6.12 per pound, up 11.84% from a twelvemonth ago, according to nan BLS, meaning a 6-ounce hamburger patty could costs astir 24 cents much now than past summer. Steak is averaging $11.49 a pound, up 8.05% from a twelvemonth ago.

All told, nan Agriculture Department predicts beef and veal prices could emergence 6.8% wide this year. It expects smaller value increases for pork and poultry.

Companies, successful turn, are flocking much to chicken, pinch fast-food chains for illustration McDonald’s, Wendy’s and Chipotle each offering caller chickenhearted options. Tyson Foods, 1 of America’s largest nutrient companies, has besides precocious launched caller chickenhearted items.

“When we’ve sewage an situation that is challenging successful beef and you’ve sewage an situation wherever there’s astir apt little readiness of beef, it’s adjuvant and surely successful nan full analyzable to beryllium capable to negociate that multi-protein, multichannel portfolio,” Tyson Foods Chief Financial Officer Curt Calaway said successful a May presentation.

Walmart is shifting its beef strategy, opening its first-ever owned and operated case-ready beef installation past month. The unit and market elephantine says nan caller installation will thief it summation capacity and amended its proviso chain, cutting costs and helping consumers get high-quality beef astatine debased prices.

While cattle farmers are trying to rebuild their herds, nan betterment for nan beef manufacture whitethorn return years, cultivation experts said.

“If I want to person much chickens, I conscionable person to hold 3 to six months,” Swanson said. “If I want to hold for much cattle, I gotta hold 3 to 4 years to get a batch much cattle.”