Global Beef Production Set To Decline Again In 2026 – Rabobank

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The downturn successful world beef accumulation is expected to tally into 2026, pinch output projected to autumn by astir 3.1%, according to Rabobank.

Among nan awesome producers, Brazil, nan US and Canada are each expected to spot little beef production, nan Dutch finance slope said successful a report.

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Rabobank besides predicts beef volumes crossed cardinal producing and consuming regions will already beryllium little successful 2025, arsenic it estimated a contraction of astir 0.8% compared to 2024.

New Zealand is forecast to registry nan sharpest percent driblet successful accumulation this year, while nan US is group to station nan largest autumn successful absolute volumes.

Retail beef prices person been rising globally arsenic markets contend pinch constricted cattle numbers, particularly successful nan US, a cardinal export market, and successful Brazil.

Tighter livestock supplies are having consequences for processors. US-headquartered Tyson Foods precocious suggested that beef volumes will proceed to suffer arsenic “tight” cattle proviso is apt to put upward unit connected prices.

The Arkansas-based institution has already pointed to an adjusted operating loss for beef successful its caller fiscal twelvemonth of $400-600m.

Recently, Tyson Foods besides revealed plans to adjacent its beef-processing plant successful Lexington, Nebraska, arsenic it intends to “right size” nan struggling conception of nan US giant’s nutrient business.

“The beef conception remains our only soft spot,” president and CEO Donnie King said successful his results chat with analysts, adding chickenhearted income are expected to return up nan slack successful fiscal 2026 for Tyson’s 2 biggest gross earners.

Canada is experiencing a akin tightening shape to nan US. Net beef exports from January to August were astir 41,000 metric tons little than a twelvemonth earlier. Rabobank expects Canadian beef supplies to go “more limited” successful 2026.

In New Zealand, beef output is besides trending down. Adult cattle accumulation from January to September was conscionable complete 475,000 metric tons, astir 6% beneath nan aforesaid play successful 2024.

Rabobank forecasts fourth-quarter accumulation to travel successful astir 2% little than successful nan last 4th of 2024, implying an wide diminution of astir 5% for 2025.

Rabobank expects Chinese beef accumulation to turn somewhat successful 2025, pinch prices “slowly” recovering arsenic nan marketplace useful done erstwhile oversupply.