A landmark study of 120,000 group reveals that hidden cardinal fat is rising crossed nan UK, and BMI is missing it, making waist-to-height ratio nan clearer informing awesome for increasing obesity risk.
Study: Long-term trends successful cardinal obesity successful England: an age-period-cohort approach. Image credit: Studio Romantic/Shutterstock.com
Several measures are utilized to way obesity, some to understand its prevalence and to foretell its wellness impact. A caller study published successful nan International Journal of Obesity attempted to way nan semipermanent changes successful cardinal obesity successful nan UK, stratifying by commencement cohort, age, and time.
Obesity measurement gaps
The assemblage wide scale (BMI) has agelong been nan go-to measurement for identifying obesity and overweight individuals. However, it astir apt underestimates nan prevalence of high-risk obesity erstwhile compared to measures of cardinal obesity. These see nan waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, and waist-to-height ratio (WC, WHR, and WHtR, respectively), each of which supply early warnings of imaginable cardiovascular and cardiometabolic wellness risks.
The BMI captures nan full weight of nan body, irrespective of whether it is derived from musculus mass, different thin mass, aliases fat mass. This is particularly applicable for children and older group who person a different assemblage creation compared to mature adults.
Using nan BMI unsocial could perchance mislabel 1 successful 10 of nan UK organization arsenic obese. Conversely, 1 successful 4 high-risk obese group has a “healthy” BMI and is misclassified arsenic being debased risk. Moreover, nan BMI overdiagnoses obesity among children.
Again, nan BMI changes complete time, making follow-up basal to find nan associated wellness risks, particularly among older individuals. Finally, nan variety successful BMI by property and activity besides makes it little easy interpretable astatine nan master and organization level.
These limitations prompted nan NICE to propose nan usage of azygous WHtR values successful adults and children instead, since this amended predicts cardiovascular consequence successful adults. It besides outperforms dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) successful measuring truncal and full fat wide successful children, and it amended correlates pinch nan prevalence of fatty liver and fibrosis successful some children and adults.
NICE presently recommends utilizing some BMI and WtHR successful individuals pinch a non-obese BMI (<35 kg/m²). Newer definitions of obesity are being developed to much accurately bespeak wellness risks and place nan request for intervention. The European Association for nan Study of Obesity (EASO) has published a caller protocol for diagnosing, staging, and managing obesity.
Despite nan wealthiness of knowledge astir changing obesity trajectories complete clip successful nan UK, location is simply a deficiency of knowing astir nan guidance of cardinal obesity measures complete time. The existent study aimed to analyse this variety while analyzing nan results for nan effects of age, time, and generational cohort.
Measuring obesity complete time
The researchers utilized information from nan Health Survey for England (2005–2021), covering 120,024 individuals aged 11 to 89 years. Their commencement years ranged betwixt 1919 and 2008. The study play spanned 16 years and 17 commencement cohorts, including participants calved successful successive five-year spans.
The study utilized cardinal obesity measures, namely, nan WC, WHR, and WHtR, arsenic good arsenic nan BMI. High consequence thresholds were group for each, based connected nan definitions provided by nan World Health Organization and nan UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.
The participants were analyzed for obesity effects by age, period, and commencement cohort (an APC analysis).
Emerging obesity trends
The researchers recovered time-dependent increases successful high-risk obesity and cardinal obesity irrespective of nan obesity measures used. High-risk BMI accrued from ~23 % successful 2005 to ~27 % successful 2021. Similarly, nan high-risk WHtR accrued from ~24 % successful 2005 to 33.4 % successful 2021.
High-risk WC besides accrued astatine nan aforesaid rate, from ~38.5 % successful 2005 to ~49 % successful 2021. The highest prevalence of high-risk obesity was obtained pinch nan WHR, from ~46.3 % successful 2005 to 61 % successful 2021.
How obesity changes pinch age
The prevalence of each cardinal obesity measures, isolated from WHtR, accrued linearly pinch property until 65-70 years, past slowed thereafter. The WHtR accrued from 11 years onwards to nan property of 85, fluctuating much markedly thereafter.
In contrast, nan BMI-age chart exhibited an inverted U shape, indicating an early emergence successful BMI pinch age. After steadying astatine astir 50 years, it began to decline. However, nan consequence of obesity-linked adverse wellness impacts increases alternatively than decreases pinch age. Thus, nan BMI fails to place this group of individuals astatine consequence accurately.
By nan property of 85 to 89 years, women and men had astir five-fold and six-fold nan likelihood of high-risk obesity, respectively, erstwhile compared pinch nan baseline values astatine 18 to 19 years.
While akin increases occurred for each measures successful some sexes, for men, nan summation successful nan likelihood of high-risk WHtR accrued steadily until 80 to 84 years, decreasing complete nan adjacent 5 years, dissimilar nan linear summation until 89 years for females. Similar differences were seen for high-risk WC, pinch females showing expanding likelihood until 80 to 84 years, but men only until 55 to 59 years. High-risk BMI likelihood besides accrued successful men until 50 to 54 years, but successful women until 65 to 69 years.
Obesity consequence changes complete time
When compared crossed periods, nan likelihood for each measures of high-risk cardinal and wide obesity were somewhat higher for some women and men successful 2019 to 2021 compared to 2005 to 2006.
Comparing commencement cohorts
Significant differences were mostly absent betwixt commencement cohorts. Only females calved betwixt 2004 and 2008, and men calved aft 1974, had somewhat little likelihood of high-risk cardinal obesity.
Rethinking obesity measures
The study is nan first to execute an APC study of wide and cardinal obesity measures. The linear summation successful high-risk obesity pinch property agrees good pinch nan study that property increases nan likelihood of obesity-related disease.
Age plays a important domiciled successful driving obesity trends meaning an aging organization could starring to further increases successful nan prevalence of obesity.
The findings underline nan superiority of cardinal obesity measures, peculiarly WtHR, successful evaluating time-dependent obesity risk. The results propose that some types of measures place different consequence groups astatine nan organization level, but not for individuals.
Currently, nan WHtR appears to excel astatine measuring obesity much accurately than nan BMI, and it should beryllium utilized arsenic a modular successful objective situations. This aligns pinch updated NICE guidance, which recommends WHtR alongside BMI alternatively than arsenic a complete replacement.
In position of these findings, early interventions targeting children and adolescents are indicated to support patient aging. Further activity should analyse different evidence-based obesity thresholds pinch nan imaginable to output nan existent obesity prevalence pinch comparable accuracy crossed different groups.
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Journal reference:
- Gray, L. A., & Breton, M. O. (2025). Long-term trends successful cardinal obesity successful England: an age-period-cohort approach. International Journal of Obesity. doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41366-025-01949-5. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41366-025-01949-5
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