Are 5 Million Nondisabled Medicaid Recipients Watching Tv All Day? That’s Unsupported

Republicans defended nan GOP megabill's Medicaid changes arsenic targeting a group of group they judge shouldn't qualify: group who tin activity but alternatively take to enactment location and chill.

Several Republican politicians and pundits, including CNN elder governmental commentator Scott Jennings, pegged that group’s size astatine astir 5 cardinal people.

“There are for illustration almost 5 cardinal able-bodied group connected Medicaid who simply take not to work,” Jennings said July 1 on “CNN NewsNight pinch Abby Phillip.” “They walk six hours a time socializing and watching television. And if you can’t get disconnected grandma’s sofa and work, I don’t want to salary for your welfare.”

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Mehmet Oz picked up connected immoderate of these points during a July 14 appearance on Fox News. “When nan programme was created 60 years ago, it ne'er dawned connected anyone that you would return able-bodied individuals who could activity and put them connected Medicaid. Today nan mean able-bodied personification connected Medicaid who doesn’t work, they watch 6.1 hours of tv aliases conscionable bent out,” Oz said.

Medicaid is simply a federal-state wellness security programme that covers aesculapian attraction for lower-income people.

Jennings cited 2 pieces of data: an estimate of really galore less group would person sum because of nan activity request and an study of really nonworking Medicaid recipients walk their time. But he made assumptions that nan information doesn't support.

Jennings misrepresents CBOestimate

The 4.8 cardinal fig stems from a June 24 Congressional Budget Office analysis of a preliminary House type of nan monolithic taxation and spending package. The office, Congress' nonpartisan investigation arm, projected that provisions of nan measure would origin 7.8 cardinal less group to person wellness sum by 2034. They would see 4.8 cardinal group antecedently eligible for Medicaid described arsenic “able-bodied” adults 19 to 64 years aged who person nary dependents and who “do not meet nan organization engagement requirement” of doing “work-related activities” at slightest 80 hours a month.

Apart from working, doing organization work and attending schoolhouse besides fulfill nan organization engagement requirement.

Jennings paired that statistic pinch a abstracted study of really nondisabled big Medicaid recipients without limited children walk their time.

But nan CBO estimate was a projection — it doesn't correspond nan existent number of nondisabled Medicaid recipients, nor does it opportunity 4.8 cardinal group successful this group “choose not to work.” The fig represented really galore less group would person sum because of nan bill's organization engagement requirement.

“The situation pinch Jennings' comments — and they've been echoed elsewhere by elected Republicans — is that CBO ne'er said that 4.8 cardinal group were retired of compliance pinch nan projected activity requirements; they said that 4.8 cardinal group would suffer sum because of nan activity requirements,” said Adrianna McIntyre, an adjunct professor of wellness argumentation and authorities astatine nan Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

Among nan Medicaid description population, nan rule requires astir adults without limited children and parents of children older than 13 to activity aliases participate successful different qualifying activities 80 hours each month. States will request to verify that applicants met nan activity request for 1 to 3 months earlier they applied. States will besides beryllium required to verify that existing enrollees met nan activity request for astatine slightest a period betwixt eligibility determinations, which will beryllium required astatine slightest doubly a year.

Research into Medicaid activity requirements imposed astatine nan authorities level has shown that group recovered it difficult to fulfill them and taxable documentation, contributing to coverage losses.

In Arkansas, which added a activity request to Medicaid successful 2018, a study based connected astir 6,000 respondents recovered that astir 95% of nan target organization were already moving aliases qualified for an exemption, but a 3rd of them did not perceive astir nan activity requirements. As a result, astir 17,000 Medicaid recipients taxable to activity requirements mislaid coverage.

KFF found that adults ages 50 to 64 are much astatine consequence of losing Medicaid sum because of nan caller activity requirements. More than 1 successful 10 successful that property group said they had retired, and among them, 28% reported being disabled, said KFF, a wellness accusation nonprofit that includes KFF Health News.

Benjamin Sommers, a wellness attraction economics professor astatine nan Harvard Chan school, said galore of nan 4.8 cardinal “able-bodied” group successful nan CBO estimate “will really beryllium engaged successful nan activities they are expected to beryllium doing, and suffer sum because they are not capable to navigate nan reporting requirements pinch nan authorities and suffer sum from reddish tape.”

When recipients don’t work, it’s seldom from deficiency of interest

There is nary cosmopolitan meaning for “able-bodied”; disablement tin beryllium assessed successful different ways. But different studies connection overmuch smaller estimates than 4.8 cardinal Medicaid recipients without dependents who tin activity but take not to.

Millions of working-age, nondisabled adults joined nan Medicaid ranks successful states that expanded eligibility nether nan Affordable Care Act. There were astir 34 cardinal working-age nondisabled Medicaid enrollees successful 2024, according to the CBO, 15 cardinal of whom enrolled done nan ACA.

A KFF analysis found a smaller fig of 26 cardinal Medicaid-covered adults, ages 19 to 64, who don't person Supplemental Security Income, Social Security Disability Insurance, aliases Medicare benefits.

Among this group, KFF estimated, 64% were moving either afloat clip aliases portion time. The reasons nan remainder were not moving included caregiving (12%); unwellness aliases disablement (10%); retirement, inability to find work, aliases different logic (8%); and schoolhouse attendance (7%).

Few group cited deficiency of liking successful moving arsenic nan logic for their unemployment. An Urban Institute study found 2% of Medicaid description enrollees without dependents who neither worked nor attended schoolhouse — or 300,000 people out of a projected 15 cardinal taxable to activity requirements — cited a deficiency of liking successful moving arsenic nan logic they were unemployed.

This was accordant pinch the Brookings Institution's June 5 study that recovered that, of 4.3 cardinal big enrollees who worked less than 80 hours a period and did not person immoderate activity limitations aliases illnesses, astir 300,000 reported that they “did not activity because they did not want to.”

Mostly women, mostly pinch a precocious schoolhouse grade aliases less

When Republicans have described nondisabled big Medicaid recipients, they person often portrayed them arsenic men successful their 30s “playing video games” successful their parents’ basement aliases who “smoke weed each day.” Research paints a different picture.

Jane Tavares and Marc Cohen, of nan University of Massachusetts-Boston Gerontology Department, researched Medicaid recipients who are not abnormal aliases working, person nary limited children nether 18, and are not successful school. They cited 2023 census information from nan American Community Survey.

They found:

• The mean property of this organization is 41, and 26% are older than 50.
• Almost 80% are female.
• Most, 80%, person a precocious schoolhouse acquisition aliases less.
• Their median individual income is $0, and their median family income is $44,800.
• About 56% worked successful nan past 5 years, and 23% worked successful nan anterior year. About 30% are looking aliases disposable for work.

“They are not patient young adults conscionable hanging out,” nan authors, on pinch wellness rule experts Sara Rosenbaum and Alison Barkoff, wrote April 30.

“It’s clear based connected their anterior activity history and family size/income that they are exceptionally mediocre and person apt near nan workforce to attraction for big children aliases older adults,” Tavares told PolitiFact. “Even if these individuals could work, they would person very fewer occupation opportunities and it would travel astatine nan costs of nan group they are providing attraction for.”

AEI study not definitively linked to CBO estimate

On nan societal level X, Jennings posted nan CBO missive and a May 29 analysis by nan American Enterprise Institute, a blimpish deliberation tank, astir “how nondisabled Medicaid recipients without children walk their time.” PolitiFact contacted CNN to scope Jennings but did not person a reply.

The writer of that study, American Enterprise Institute elder chap Kevin Corinth, analyzed study information and recovered that Medicaid recipients who do not study moving walk connected mean 6.1 hours a time “on each socializing, relaxing and leisure activities (including tv and video games).”

But it's uncertain whether nan group successful nan study organization he analyzed overlap pinch nan group included successful nan CBO analysis, said Jennifer Tolbert, lawman head of KFF's Program connected Medicaid and nan Uninsured.

Corinth told PolitiFact “it is difficult to say” really nan organization he analyzed differs from nan CBO’s. Tavares, Cohen, Rosenbaum, and Barkoff said Corinth's dataset defined disablement narrowly, starring to a “serious underestimation of disability” among nan organization of Medicaid recipients he looked into. It focused connected Medicaid recipients who person Supplemental Security Income aliases person a wellness information that prevents them from working. The researchers said this attack is excessively constrictive because nan SSI programme accounts for only those “most profoundly impoverished adults pinch terrible disabilities.”

The group gave a hypothetical illustration of a 54-year-old female pinch a superior bosom information who tin activity only a fewer hours a week. She whitethorn not beryllium considered abnormal nether nan SSI program, but she whitethorn beryllium constricted successful nan activity she tin do and whitethorn request clip to rest.

“Using her 'leisure time' to warrant a activity request grossly misrepresents her reality,” the group wrote.

Corinth's study besides shows that nonworking Medicaid recipients walk little clip socializing, relaxing, aliases engaged successful leisure activities than nonworking group who aren't covered by Medicaid. Nonworking Medicaid recipients besides walk much clip looking for activity and doing housework and errands, it found.

Our ruling

Jennings said almost 5 cardinal nondisabled Medicaid recipients “simply take not to work” and “spend six hours a time socializing and watching television.”

The 5 cardinal fig stems from a CBO projection that 4.8 cardinal group would spell without sum by 2034 arsenic a consequence of not fulfilling nan organization engagement requirements. It is not descriptive of existent enrollees and does not specify that these group take not to work.

Jennings cited an American Enterprise Institute study connected really nondisabled Medicaid recipients pinch nary dependents walk their time, but it is uncertain if nan organization successful that study overlaps pinch that successful nan CBO estimate.

Current snapshots of nan organization Jennings described nutrient a smaller number. A study by nan Urban Institute recovered that 2% of Medicaid description enrollees without dependents who were neither moving nor attending schoolhouse — astir 300,000 group — cited a deficiency of liking successful working. Other investigation has recovered reasons this group doesn't activity see caregiving, unwellness aliases disability, retirement, and inability to find work.

Studies of nonworking Medicaid recipients person recovered nan mostly are women and person a precocious schoolhouse acquisition aliases less. Their mean property is 41, and much than half person a activity history successful nan past 5 years.

We complaint Jennings' connection False.