2026 Is Already Shaping Up To Be A Weird Year For Automakers

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Good morning! It's Friday, April 3, 2026, and this is The Morning Shift, your regular roundup of nan apical automotive headlines from astir nan world, successful 1 place. This is wherever you'll find nan astir important stories that are shaping nan measurement Americans thrust and get around.

In this morning's edition, 2026 is already looking for illustration it's going to beryllium a weird twelvemonth for automakers, Rivian is having a bully time, Toyota is fresh to bring successful its "Tesla Killer" EVs to nan U.S. and Teals wants to beryllium Japan's most-imported automaker.

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Last twelvemonth was not peculiarly benignant to nan automotive industry, and things are already shaping up to beryllium conscionable arsenic sadistic successful 2026. With nan first 4th nether our belt, we're getting a amended knowing of wherever things are heading, and nan results are, well, inconsistent, to opportunity nan least. Affordability, surging state prices, a meh occupation marketplace and lackluster user assurance each really pulled down connected nan car marketplace during nan first 3 months of nan year. Lest we forget, location was nary national taxation in installments helping EV sales, either.

U.S. consumers are trapped successful benignant sort of medieval ass-kicking device. Just deliberation astir it. Car prices are up. Ass kick. Interest rates are up. Ass kick. Insurance is up. Ass kick. Now, state prices are up. Ass kick. Oh, and don't you for a 2nd suffer attraction connected nan truth you could suffer your occupation tomorrow and beryllium replaced by a robot. Double ass kick. There's besides a warfare that doesn't look for illustration it's ending anytime soon. Triple ass kick.

It's difficult to bargain a car erstwhile location are aggregate size 12 boots taking turns reminding you who's nan leader each time long, and now it would look that most (but not all) automaker  are joining each of america successful nan ass-kicking device. From Automotive News:

First-quarter deliveries fell astatine astir of nan biggest automakers ― General Motors, Toyota Motor Corp., Ford Motor Co., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. But it was nan sixth consecutive 4th of maturation for Hyundai-Kia and nan 3rd consecutive for Stellantis.

At Toyota, Lexus posted its first quarterly diminution successful much than 3 years, offsetting a flimsy summation for nan company's mass-market brand.

[...]

Sales person fallen for 2 consecutive quarters astatine General Motors but executives opportunity nan automaker tin upwind much headwinds.

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Some of nan biggest first-quarter declines occurred astatine smaller automakers, including those much limited connected imports. Sales fell 14 percent astatine Mazda and 15 percent astatine Mitsubishi.

At Subaru, measurement dropped for an eighth consecutive month, down 24 percent successful March and 15 percent for nan quarter.

[...]

Ford, aft discontinuing 1 of its least-expensive models, nan Escape, hopes to entice shoppers into different inferior vehicles, notably nan Bronco Sport, which group a first 4th income grounds of 35,021, up 5 percent. Entry-level trims of nan Maverick, Ranger and Bronco Sport roseate 8.4 percent, Ford said.

Like I said, though, not everyone is getting successful connected nan ass-kicking device. I wasn't alert that was an option, to beryllium honest.

First-quarter deliveries roseate 1 percent astatine Hyundai, to 205,388, and 4.1 percent astatine Kia, to 207,015, some marking all-time highs. The 2 Korean brands expect to boost income further this twelvemonth aft each group a grounds successful 2025, moreover if nan broader marketplace is level aliases lower, arsenic galore analysts predict.

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Kia said first-quarter hybrid models roseate 73 percent and wide electrified models precocious 30 percent.

Stellantis appears to beryllium uncovering its stride aft years of market-share losses.

The automaker's U.S. income roseate 4.1 percent successful nan first 4th connected gains astatine Ram, Jeep and Dodge.

Under caller CEO Antonio Filosa, nan automaker is moving to extremity a streak of yearly income declines that has stretched to 7 years successful a row.

Stellantis received a boost from nan redesigned Jeep Cherokee and nan freshened Grand Wagoneer.

Ram income jumped 20 percent, marking its champion first 4th since 2023, pinch income of nan 1500 pickup surging 27 percent. The institution revived its 5.7-liter Hemi V-8 motor connected nan 2026 Ram 1500 past twelvemonth aft dropping it from nan erstwhile year's model.

If we've learned thing complete nan past twelvemonth aliases so, it's that things tin alteration connected a dime. So, I wouldn't beryllium terribly amazed if nan economical authorities we find ourselves successful astatine nan extremity of Q2 is acold different than nan 1 we're successful now. Note really I didn't opportunity "better." I conscionable said "different," because I'm very alert of really overmuch worse things are apt to get.

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Rivian, a institution that has had a spot tumultuous financial past, managed to spare itself from nan Q1 ass kicking by really exceeding analysts' expectations for deliveries. It intelligibly shows that request for nan R1S and R1T has stabilized aft declining a spot pursuing nan decease of nan national EV taxation credit. From Reuters:

Rivian's income had fallen successful nan December 4th aft a $7,500 U.S. national EV taxation in installments expired successful September, pushing up prices ​and removing an inducement that had agelong drawn buyers.

Rivian produced 10,236 vehicles ​in nan March quarter, compared pinch estimates of 9,852.

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Higher volumes bode good for Rivian up of its new, cheaper R2 model, which will commencement deliveries this spring. The cheapest R2 variant, starting astatine astir $45,000, is ​expected to motorboat adjacent ​year.

"Solid deliveries successful ⁠the 4th encouragingly propose nan upcoming R2 motorboat is not materially cannibalizing R1 demand," BNP Paribas Equity Research elder ​analyst, James Picariello said.

Rivian expects nan caller exemplary to importantly ​broaden ⁠its customer guidelines and return connected Tesla's best-selling Model Y Premium, priced from $44,990.

It besides struck a semipermanent business pinch Uber past month, nether which nan ride-hailing patient will ⁠invest up ​to $1.25 cardinal successful nan EV shaper and ​deploy Rivian's afloat autonomous R2 SUVs arsenic robotaxis from 2028.

The Irvine, California-based automaker delivered 10,365 vehicles successful nan first 3 months of 2026, which handily surpassed nan 9,678 vehicles analysts expected it to deliver. It besides doubled down connected its full-year transportation forecast of 62,000 to 67,000 (67!) vehicles. That would beryllium a caller grounds for nan company. Previously, nan astir vehicles it ever delivered successful a azygous twelvemonth was 51,579 successful 2024.

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Despite nan truth nan U.S. electrical conveyance marketplace has contracted significantly, Toyota is undeterred and feels Americans are fresh for the "Tesla killer" EVs its been cooking up. It presently offers 4 imported EVs, and a 5th is coming this month. On apical of that, accumulation connected a caller U.S.-built EV is slated to statesman astatine its works successful Kentucky later this year, and different exemplary is group to travel successful 2027. In total, Toyota will person 7 EVs successful nan U.S. erstwhile each is said and done.

It's an absorbing plan, for sure. Because of timing, Toyota looks to subordinate a quickly emptying section of EVs arsenic different automakers propulsion retired to attraction connected hybrids. Honda, General Motors, Ford, Stellantis and nan VW Group person each reined successful their EV plans, and it really leaves a spread for Toyota to dispersed successful nan market. Hell, moreover Tesla is cutting its offerings down, but Toyota is undeterred. From Bloomberg:

"We'll astir apt spot what I telephone boomerang customers, group who loved Prius for being nan greenest car successful nan manufacture that possibly went to a Tesla — and past we get those group back," [vice president and main operating serviceman of Toyota North America Mark] Templin said successful an interview. "Two weeks agone successful Japan, I drove 3 of our early artillery electrical cars. They're fantastic. And I deliberation they're going to beryllium Tesla killers."

It remains unclear whether request will beryllium beardown capable to support nan afloat lineup of electrical models. After peaking astatine 10.5% of US caller car income successful nan 3rd 4th of past year, EVs made up only 5.8% of nan marketplace arsenic of nan extremity of 2025, according to Cox Automotive.

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Sales of nan bZ and its sister Lexus model, nan RZ, much than doubled past period and nan bZ has outsold nan Prius for nan first 3 months of nan year.

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Long criticized for its slower clasp of EVs arsenic portion of a alleged "multipathway approach," Toyota is ramping up. In summation to nan bZ and RZ compact battery-electric crossovers, Toyota sells nan C-HR subcompact EV, an all-terrain afloat electrical SUV called nan bZ Woodland and, starting this month, nan electric-powered Lexus ES midsize sedan.

For its first US-made EV, Toyota took nan nameplate of a conveyance that was sold arsenic a gasoline aliases hybrid exemplary — nan Highlander — and reimagined it arsenic an EV. That three-row, seven-seat SUV will beryllium built starting later this twelvemonth astatine an existing mill successful Georgetown, Kentucky, alongside different non-EV models. Its powertrain will beryllium supplied by Toyota's caller $14 cardinal lithium-ion artillery works successful North Carolina. A second, as-yet-unnamed all-electric SUV, will beryllium added from 2027.

In March, 55% of Toyota's income were either hybrids aliases EVs — up from 49% a twelvemonth ago. The institution says nan percent would person been moreover higher if location weren't limits connected nan number of vehicles it tin physically proviso to dealers. In fact, buyers for immoderate of their astir celebrated hybrid person to woody pinch months-long waiting lists, and Templin says nan institution could astir apt make doubly arsenic galore hybrids and still waste them. 

Talk astir a flex.

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Like everyone who wants to beryllium cool connected a world scale, Tesla yearns to beryllium a bigger woody successful Japan, and that's why nan automaker is readying to grow its footprint successful nan state to astatine slightest 60 stores. It's each successful an effort to go Japan's biggest imported marque by arsenic early arsenic adjacent year. From Reuters:

Expanded shop and work centre sum and finance successful training complete nan past 2 years person helped thrust Tesla's income maturation successful Japan, said state head Richi ​Hashimoto, moreover arsenic electric-vehicle take successful nan state remains modest.

The Elon Musk-led company's description successful Japan comes ​as battery-powered car income person slowed heavy successful nan U.S. and different cardinal markets globally, ⁠increasing nan value of regions wherever electrical conveyance penetration remains low.

"We want to purpose to go nan number 1 ​imported car brand, perchance arsenic early arsenic adjacent year," Hashimoto said astatine an arena to people nan motorboat of Model ​Y L successful Japan, outlining nan company's mid- to semipermanent goals successful nan country.

The U.S. EV maker, which sold conscionable complete 10,000 vehicles successful nan state past year, began taking orders connected Friday successful Japan for nan Model Y L, a six-seater geared toward families, arsenic ​it seeks to broaden its entreaty beyond early adopters.

Tesla presently has 13 stories and 14 work centers connected nan land country. Along pinch nan aforementioned 60 stories, it wants to double its work web to astir 30 locations.

Currently, Mercedes-Benz is nan top-selling overseas marque successful Japan, having moved astir 51,000 cars location successful 2025. It was followed by BMW, Volkswagen and Audi. Tesla will surely person its activity trim retired for it, considering Japan has been a spot slow connected nan full EV uptake thing, preferring to instrumentality pinch hybrids, instead.

History.com

Listen, Jesse James wasn't a bully dude, but Robert Ford is simply a consecutive up loser for what he did, and I'm gladsome that's really history remembers him. I suppose coming is nan cleanable clip for my rewatch of that awesome movie, too. If you want to study much about the assassination of Jesse James by nan coward Robert Ford, caput complete to History.com.

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As nan the U.S. and Israel's warfare with Iran drags into its 2nd week, state prices show fewer signs of relenting. The truth that WTI Crude Oil futures and Brent Crude are some still hovering astir nan $110 people isn't overmuch of a promising motion that things will get amended anytime soon, either.

So, it'll travel arsenic nary astonishment to study that nan mean value of a gallon of state ticked up again overnight by a cent — going from $4.08 to $4.09, according to AAA. That number is judge to excite immoderate Penn State fans (either arsenic a joke aliases for existent if you're someway cool pinch JoePa), but will beryllium met pinch groans from everybody else.

For those keeping track, nan past clip state was complete $4.09 was backmost successful July of 2022, according to information from nan Energy Information Administration, and nan mean value of a gallon of state is now up $1.11 — aliases astir 31.4% — since nan warfare first collapsed retired connected February 28, erstwhile it was $2.98.

Even much worryingly for our wallets whitethorn beryllium nan value of diesel, though. About a week earlier nan warfare collapsed out, nan mean gallon of diesel costs $3.81. Today, it sits astatine $5.53 — a 36.8% increase. 

Here's wherever nationalist mean prices guidelines correct now, according to AAA:

AAA