Will Arsenal Break Chelsea’s Record Of Conceding Only 15 Goals In A Season?

In an era erstwhile quality capacity and sports subject proceed to beforehand astatine a singular pace, location are very fewer shot records that stay genuinely untouchable. But Chelsea’s 2004-05 Premier League run remains 1 of nan awesome exceptions. José Mourinho’s broadside conceded only 15 goals connected their measurement to winning nan title, a grounds that has stood unchallenged for 2 decades.

No squad has travel adjacent since. Chelsea themselves conceded 22 times nan pursuing play and, on pinch Manchester United successful 2007-08 and Liverpool successful 2018-19, came closest to nan magical 15 number. But moreover then, those 3 teams were still 7 goals shy.

To put Chelsea’s phenomenal grounds into perspective, Wolves and West Ham person already fto successful 16 goals this play – 1 much than Mourinho’s broadside did successful 38 games.

But Arsenal, who logged yet different cleanable expanse astatine nan play distant to Fulham, are connected way to hit Chelsea’s celebrated record. Their latest shutout intends they person conceded only 3 times successful 8 convention games this play – a complaint of 0.38 goals per game. If they support that pace, they will beryllium connected people to concede 14.4 goals crossed nan afloat 38-match season. If they tin support that down to 14, it would, of course, break nan record.

Mikel Arteta has built an bonzer protect portion and nan early numbers underline conscionable really ascendant they person been. On a per-game basis, Arsenal lead each teams successful Europe’s apical 5 leagues for goals conceded and expected goals conceded. They rank 2nd successful Europe for some full shots and shots connected target faced, while nan value of chances they let – measured by xG per changeable – is besides nan 2nd lowest of immoderate team.

Looking astatine wherever Arsenal are conceding their shots from not only shows america really fewer chances they are giving up from a sheer measurement standpoint, but besides that they person been exceptional astatine defending their ain six-yard box. Much of that stems from nan commanding beingness of nan centre-backs Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba, who person been formidable protect presences astatine nan bosom of Arsenal’s backmost four, pinch goalkeeper David Raya much than playing his part.

Arteta has been capable to section a very acquainted protect portion successful beforehand of Raya, which has nary uncertainty helped lend to their obdurate displays. Gabriel and Saliba person started six of Arsenal’s 8 convention games together, providing a robust platform. When Saliba has been unavailable, 21-year-old Cristhian Mosquera has slotted successful impressively. At full-back, Riccardo Calafiori has started each crippled and Jurriën Timber 7 of eight. Both bring tremendous physicality and excel successful one-on-one situations.

With only 3 goals conceded aft 8 games, really does Arsenal’s commencement stack up historically? Seven teams successful Premier League history person conceded 2 aliases less goals successful their opening 8 games. Chelsea’s 2004-05 side, nan golden standard, kept 7 cleanable sheets successful that span, and conceded conscionable once.

But arsenic history shows, maintaining this level of protect solidity complete an full play is acold from straightforward, nor does a bully commencement guarantee occurrence travel nan extremity of nan campaign. Of those 7 teams, only 3 – Chelsea (2004-05 and 2005-06) and Manchester United (2007-08) – went connected to triumph nan title. Leicester City successful 2000-01 ended up 13th.

Arsenal cognize that instruction each excessively well. In 1998-99, they conceded only 17 goals each season, but went connected to decorativeness second. That full is still nan fewest goals conceded by a squad that didn’t triumph nan title, pinch their protect excellence undermined by a deficiency of goals astatine nan different extremity of nan pitch.

This time, things look different. Arsenal scored conscionable 59 goals successful 1998-99, nan fourth-most that season, and 21 less than eventual champions Manchester United. This season, they person scored 15 successful 8 games, which puts them connected people for a solid, if not spectacular, 71.

But pinch scoring rates down crossed nan convention this season, that shouldn’t beryllium excessively concerning, peculiarly arsenic their underlying attacking metrics look fine; their wide xG of 14.1 is nan fourth-highest successful nan league, pinch Crystal Palace (17.4 xG) very overmuch wrong rubbing distance.

This has been achieved without their onslaught afloat clicking. Martin Ødegaard, Noni Madueke and Kai Havertz person missed important spells, and they each stay out. Viktor Gyökeres hasn’t yet recovered apical cogwheel and Bukayo Saka has besides had clip connected nan sidelines.

If and erstwhile that attacking hit arrives, and if nan defence continues astatine this singular level, Arsenal will beryllium highly difficult to stop. Breaking Chelsea’s 15-goal grounds whitethorn still beryllium a gangly bid but, correct now, Arteta’s broadside are giving it a superior go. In doing so, they whitethorn conscionable beryllium building a title-winning platform.

This is an article by Opta Analyst