Vaping Recreates 1970s Smoking Uptake Rates In Uk Teens

UK teens who presently vape are arsenic apt to return up smoking arsenic their peers successful nan 1970s, contempt a important autumn successful nan prevalence of teenage smoking complete nan past 50 years, suggests a agelong word intergenerational study published online successful nan diary Tobacco Control.

The likelihood of starting to fume among teens who don't vape was astir 1.5%, but 33% among those who do, nan findings indicate.

It's not wholly clear if nan emergence successful fame of e-cigarettes (vapes) among teens threatens nan dependable diminution successful nan prevalence of cigaret smoking successful this property group, opportunity nan researchers, arsenic nan published investigation is somewhat equivocal.

And if historical declines are slowing, it's not clear really nan consequence of cigaret smoking among today's young people-especially those who vape-compares to that of erstwhile generations who came of property earlier notable baccy power authorities and nan advent of e-cigarettes, they add.

To effort and find out, they drew connected intergenerational information from 3 nationally typical commencement cohorts of UK teens* calved successful 1958 (National Child Development Study; NCDS), 1970 (The British Cohort Study; BCS), and 2001 (Millennium Cohort Study; MCS). 

As good arsenic baseline surveys astatine either commencement aliases 9 months, MCS participants provided information astatine ages 3, 5, 7, 11, 14, 17 and 23; BCS participants astatine ages 5, 10, 16, 26, 30, 34, 38, 42, 46 and 51; and NCDS participants astatine ages 7, 11, 16, 23, 33, 42, 46, 50, 55 and 62.

The prevalence of teen smoking was assessed successful 1974 among 11,969 NCDS participants, successful 1986 among 6222 BCS participants, and successful 2018 among 9733 MCS participants. The likelihood of smoking among 16 and 17 twelvemonth olds were estimated, based connected a communal group of puerility consequence and protective factors; teen vaping was included arsenic a predictor successful nan MCS.

Risk/protective factors included whether they had ever drunk intoxicant by property 16 aliases 17; really engaged they were pinch acquisition astatine school; nan grade of externalising behaviours reported by nan mother aliases main caregiver astatine ages 10 aliases 11; and parental occupation, education, and smoking behaviour- including during pregnancy. 

Analysis of nan intergenerational information revealed a steep diminution successful nan prevalence of cigaret smoking among teens, falling from 33% successful 1974, to 25% successful 1986, and to 12% successful 2018. Around half of nan MCS participants hadn't vaped by nan clip they were 17; 41% said they had antecedently vaped; and 11% reported existent vaping.

The diminution successful prevalence of teen smoking tin beryllium attributed to a operation of baccy power legislation, amended nationalist knowing of nan wellness consequences of smoking, and a displacement distant from nan cognition of smoking arsenic socially acceptable, propose nan researchers.

Risk/protective factors besides changed complete time. For example, nan percent of teens who had started drinking by nan property of 16 aliases 17 fell from 94% successful nan NCDS to 83% successful nan MCS. 

The mean property astatine which mothers near acquisition besides roseate from 15.5 successful nan NCDS to 17 successful nan MCS. Similarly, nan prevalence of parental smoking fell from complete 70% successful nan NCDS to 27% successful nan MCS; and less mothers continued smoking while pregnant successful nan MCS than successful nan NCDS and nan BCS.

Many consequence factors for teen smoking were akin crossed nan cohorts-drinking earlier nan property of 17 and greater externalising behaviours, for example-as were immoderate kid level protective factors-greater engagement pinch education, for example. 

To exemplify nan likelihood of cigaret smoking for an 'average' teen (16-17) complete time, nan researchers worked retired predicted probabilities of cigaret smoking pinch each consequence factors included from nan intergenerational data. 

This probability was 30% successful nan NCDS and 22% successful nan BCS. Among those who had ne'er vaped successful nan MCS this was astir 1.5%, but 33% for nan teens who reported existent vaping. 

"This probability is particularly concerning fixed nan caller increases successful e-cigarette usage prevalence among UK youth, contempt immoderate first assurances that e-cigarettes would person small entreaty to [them]," stated nan researchers. 

The researchers admit that they were incapable to relationship for immoderate sociodemographic characteristics, including title and ethnicity, owed to insufficient sample sizes successful nan earlier cohorts. And they emphasise that estimates of nan associations betwixt vaping and smoking successful nan MCS aren't causal and shouldn't beryllium interpreted arsenic such, particularly arsenic nan temporal sequencing of smoking and vaping isn't explicit.

Nevertheless they concluded, "While our investigation shows that nan historical diminution successful nan likelihood of younker cigaret smoking has continued successful this caller cohort of UK youth, overall, we find that this is not nan lawsuit among e-cigarette users. 

"Youth who had ne'er utilized e-cigarettes had an estimated little than 1 successful 50 chance of reporting play cigaret usage astatine property 17, while those who had antecedently utilized e-cigarettes had complete a 1 successful 10 chance. Youth who reported existent e-cigarette usage had an almost 1 successful 3 chance of besides reporting existent cigaret use. 

"As such, nan diminution successful nan likelihood of cigaret smoking is waning for younker who person utilized e-cigarettes-about half of our sample-and has reversed for those presently utilizing e-cigarettes. 

"Among modern youth, efforts to trim cigaret smoking should attraction some connected those who are presently utilizing e-cigarettes and connected nan prevention of e-cigarette usage among youth, to support nan promising declines successful younker nicotine usage successful years to come."